Recent months have confirmed that no marriage in Formula 1 It’s divorce-proof. Given the twists and turns with the agreement Lewis Hamilton – Ferrari and the sudden risk of dismissal of Christian Hornereverything seems to be possible, in a list that includes the journey of Max Verstappen to the Mercedesthe arrival of Fernando Alonso at Red Bull (maybe with Carlos Sainz next) and more.
There is a lot of talk, and it is true, that the drivers’ teams and team managers are committed to reading the current context before their rivals, but this is normal. All the bosses talk to all the drivers about the future. Many deals are expected in the coming months, considering that only seven are guaranteed on the 2025 grid, but it is not certain that we will see the earthquake predicted by the rumors.
At the moment, it is Red Bull who is stagnating the market, and it could not be otherwise, given the moment they are going through. In Melbourne, calm seems to have returned, with less media interest, but rumors about Verstappen continue. It is a fact that Mercedes hopes to be able to count on the Dutchman, with Toto Wolff recently saying that the marriage “is just a matter of time, sooner or later it will happen”.
Toto Wolff’s smile: team hopes to sign Verstappen
Photo by: Shameem Fahath
However, Wolff knows that switching from Red Bull to Mercedes today would be a risky choice for 2025 and full of unknowns for 2026. To convince a driver to abandon a dominant team, the path is not easy. Here it will be up to Horner to convince Verstappen that he has more to lose than gain.
The support guaranteed to Horner by the majority shareholder of the Red Bull Group, Chalerm Yoovidhya, made it unnecessary for Verstappen’s entourage to try to remove the current team leader. If Max wants to stay there, he will do so with Horner heading up operations.
Now, it remains to be seen whether Verstappen will make this a source of pride or whether he will prioritize his career and the potential possibility of reaching a fifth championship in 2025.
Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB20
Photo di: Red Bull Content Pool
If Verstappen’s departure is unlikely, Sergio Pérez’s future is also a question mark. His position is not the most stable, but the start of the season seems to work in his favor, with two second places in 3 GPs.
That’s what Red Bull asks of him, and if his performance remains stable until the middle of the year, Pérez can be kept. There have been no tensions between the two drivers for over a year, the 2023 targets have been met and, if the trend is confirmed in 2024, there is no reason to take the risk of a change. After the last few months, today tranquility is seen as a great asset.
However, there were contacts between Horner and representatives of other drivers with the aim of not being caught off guard if necessary. Alonso seems to prioritize a renewal with Aston Martin, but obviously also explores Red Bull and Mercedes.
Fernando Alonso: what will be his future?
For Fernando, the dream scenario would be a trip to Red Bull without Verstappen. But with the Dutchman continuing, driving the best car on the grid loses its appeal. The chance of seeing Alonso at Mercedes today seems less likely, with the technical guarantees being no better than those at Aston Martin, where he is well acclimated. Furthermore, Alonso would hardly receive a higher salary from Wolff than today.
Carlos Sainz, Ferrari
Photo di: Ferrari
Sainz’s team is also very active. The victory in Australia came at the ideal time to increase its position in the market, and the chances seem to be different. A move to Red Bull, even alongside Verstappen, would be very welcome, but it involves a wait (the one Red Bull gave Pérez), which does not go well with the needs of the Spaniard, who wants to resolve his future soon.
The chances at Aston Martin are linked to a possible departure for Alonso, an option that today seems unlikely but not impossible, while there is silence on Mercedes’ potential dual interest. There is always Audi lurking, but despite the various certainties (position, salary, contract), there are many other unknowns to be considered on the technical side.
