With industry, commerce and services on the rise, the Economic Bulletin maintains a projection of positive economic performance in RS in 2024

The first economic data for 2024 show that, in addition to the recovery in agricultural production, Rio Grande do Sul is benefiting from the positive performances of industry, commerce and services activities.

The manufacturing industry, the main industrial segment in the State, grew 6.2% in the first two months of the year compared to the same period in 2023. Retail trade recorded an expansion of 6.1% in its numbers. And the services sector, the most relevant in the formation of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), increased by 3.4% in the same period of time. These data support the projection of an increase in economic activity for the year.

The assessment is in the April Economic Bulletin, a document produced by the DEE (Department of Economics and Statistics) of the Secretariat of Planning, Governance and Management. Released this Tuesday (23), the bulletin also shows a slight increase in families’ consumption intentions and an increase in the confidence of businesspeople in the industry in Rio Grande do Sul as signs for a year of positive numbers.

Researcher Martinho Lazzari, one of those responsible for preparing the material, together with researcher Tomás Amaral Torezani, highlighted the confirmation of projections for advances in the production of soybeans (+71.6%) and corn (+26.4%), two of the State’s main agricultural crops, both affected in the last two years by the lack of rain during the harvest period.

Even though the prices of these agricultural commodities are at lower levels than those recorded between 2022 and 2023, the chain effect of greater production should extend to other sectors of the economy.

“The greater agricultural supply will benefit activities associated with the primary sector, such as services and the agri-food industry. The growth of production in the manufacturing industry, commerce and services can also benefit from the projected increase in national investment and the heated job market”, said Lazzari.

External and internal scenarios

According to the bulletin, growth in global economic activity proved to be resilient in 2023, although with differences between economies: expansions in the United States and China, slowdown in the Euro Area and contraction in Argentina.

Another important aspect in 2023 was the global disinflationary process, helped by the reduction in commodity prices. The prospects for 2024 are for global growth to continue below the pre-pandemic annual average and for a slower pace of reduction in inflation.

In Brazil, as well as in Rio Grande do Sul, activities in the manufacturing industry, commerce and services also recorded positive results in the first two months of 2024, with inflation maintaining a downward trend. The main projections for the national economy for the year indicate positive growth, but lower than that recorded in 2023, when the country’s GDP registered an increase of 2.9%.