Industrial production in the state of São Paulo accumulated growth of 4.3% in the year, according to data from the Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo (Fiesp). Even with the two negative variations in monthly fares recorded in January 2024 (-1.5%) and February 2024 (-0.3%), the 4.3% growth in the last 12 months was due to the comparison basis , according to Fiesp. This result shows a stronger increase in production in the extractive industry (+6.1%), compared to the manufacturing industry (+4.0%), maintaining the trend that prevailed during 2023.
Analysis of the scenario carried out by Fiesp technicians shows that in the manufacturing industry it is possible to observe a widespread recovery movement, starting with durable consumer goods (+5.2%), followed by intermediate goods (+4.8%), of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (+5.2%) and capital goods (+3.6%), data generated by the comparison between January and February 2023 in the original series.
Interest drop
The response of industrial production to the ongoing movement of falling interest rates tends to gain strength in the second half of the year, due to the lagged effects of monetary policy, which can contribute to this movement and the expansion of the wage bill.
Fiesp projects an increase of 2.2% in industrial production in 2024. The results of a study on production released by the São Paulo federation show a small decline of 0.3% between January and February, in seasonally adjusted data. However, compared to February 2023 there was growth of 5.0%.
The month’s result was slightly below Fiesp’s monthly projection (-0.1%) and was influenced by the combination of a drop in the extractive industry (-0.9%) and stability in the manufacturing industry.
In 12 months, the sector advanced 1.0% and remains behind by 1.1% compared to the pre-pandemic level, recorded in February 2020.
Among the sectors of activity that recorded the biggest positive contributions in February, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (+6.5%) and cellulose, paper and paper products (+5.8%) stand out. The most relevant negative influences in February were chemical products (-3.5%), extractive industries (-0.9%) and pharmochemical and pharmaceutical products (-6.0%).
