US GDP, inflation and unemployment report in Brazil are highlights of this 5th

On the eve of the Good Friday holiday, which closes the markets tomorrow, US futures indices are operating lower, with investors awaiting the final version of the American Domestic Product (GDP) in the 4th quarter, in addition to requests for unemployment benefits and consumer sentiment.

Although the market is closed tomorrow, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, one of the main metrics defining monetary policy in the US, will be released this Friday.

In Brazil, the Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI) is out, the first of the year, with new estimates for the Brazilian economy and at the end of the morning there will be an interview with the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, and the director of Economic Policy, Diogo Guillen. The February unemployment rate is also highlighted on the local agenda.

1.World Exchanges

U.S

New York’s three main indexes are on track for their second consecutive quarter of gains and their fifth consecutive month of gains. For the quarter, the S&P 500 rose about 10%. It is on track for its best first-quarter gain since 2019, when it rose 13.1%. The Dow Jones, which rose 5.5% during the period, is looking for its strongest first-quarter performance since 2021, when it advanced 7.4%. The Nasdaq is up 9.3% in the quarter so far.

See how futures markets perform:

Dow Jones Future: -0.03%

S&P 500 Future: -0.11%

Nasdaq Futures: -0.17%

Asia

Asian markets closed without a single direction, with Chinese markets benefiting from an improvement in sentiment and Tokyo markets pressured by shares trading ex-dividend. The Australian secured a new historic high, before the Easter holidays.

In mainland China, investors became more excited after Chinese President Xi Jinping defended closer commercial ties with the US, during a meeting yesterday with the main American business leaders in Beijing, and assured that the world’s second largest economy has not yet reached the peak.

Shanghai SE (China), +0.59%

Nikkei (Japan): -1.46%

Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong): +0.91%

Kospi (South Korea): -0.34%

ASX 200 (Australia): +0.99%

Europe

European stock markets operate higher in the last trading session of March, with investors reflecting data from the region. GDP figures confirmed that the UK economy entered recession in 2023, with a contraction of 0.3% in the last quarter. Meanwhile, Germany’s statistics agency said employment rose slightly in February. Business and consumer confidence readings for Italy are expected.

FTSE 100 (UK): +0.47%

DAX (Germany): +0.11%

CAC 40 (France): +0.49%

FTSE MIB (Italy): +0.08%

STOXX 600: +0.28%

Commodities

Oil prices rise, recovering from two consecutive sessions of declines, as investors reassess the latest data on U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Iron ore prices in China closed lower for the third consecutive day, due to the slow start of the construction season in China and greater supply from Brazil. April iron ore benchmark SZZFJ4 on the Singapore Exchange was 1.4% higher at $102.70 per metric ton.

WTI oil, +0.49%, at $81.75 a barrel

Brent crude, +0.44%, at $86.47 a barrel

Iron ore traded on the Dalian exchange fell 0.85%, to 758.00 yuan, equivalent to US$104.84

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin, +2.86% to US$70,600.07 (compared to the price 24 hours ago)

2. Agenda

Today’s agenda highlights the February Continuous PNAD, with new employment data and Bradesco’s expectation of an unemployment rate of 7.5%. The Central Bank will present the Quarterly Inflation Report for the 1st quarter. The document presents the policy guidelines adopted by Copom and provides considerations on the evolution of the economic scenario.

In the United States, the expectation will be for the final GDP of the fourth quarter, with a projection of a 3.2% increase in the quarterly variation according to the LSEG consensus. Weekly jobless claims and the University of Michigan confidence index are expected at 76.5, according to LSEG.

Brazil

8am: Quarterly Inflation Report

9am: Continuous PNAD from February; LSEG consensus predicts unemployment rate at 7.8%

11am: Campos Neto participates in a press conference on monetary policy, at the Central Bank, in São Paulo, broadcast on the BC Channel on YouTube

2:30 pm: Public debt for February

2:30 pm: Weekly exchange rate flow

3pm: CMN

USA

9:30 am: GDP (final version) for the 4th quarter of 2023; LSEG consensus predicts 3.2% rise

9:30 am: Weekly unemployment insurance claims; LSEG consensus predicts 212 thousand requests

10:30 am: March consumer confidence

11am: Pending housing for February

3. Economic news

Haddad criticizes Campos Neto’s articulation to approve BC’s financial autonomy

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), criticized the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, for ignoring the government in articulating the approval of the PEC of the BC’s financial autonomy in the National Congress. He admitted that Campos Neto’s political movement displeased the Lula government and said that, even though it was a protocol issue, “it is no less important”.

Macron throws cold water on agreement between Mercosur and EU

The President of France, Emmanuel Macron, made it clear that he does not intend to continue negotiations involving a trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union (EU).

4. Political news

Moraes gives PGR 5 days to give its opinion on Bolsonaro in embassy

Minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), gave five days for the Attorney General’s Office (PGR) to comment on the clarifications provided by former president Jair Bolsonaro in the case of the Hungarian Embassy. Bolsonaro’s defense said it would be “illogical” to suggest that he would request political asylum during the period he was staying at the Hungarian embassy in Brasília, in the middle of Carnival.

5. Corporate Radar

Vale (VALE3) signed a contract for the acquisition of the entire 45% stake of Cemig Geração (Cemig GT), a subsidiary of Cemig (CMIG4), in the company Aliança Energia, a privately held company, for the amount of R$ 2.7 billion. Upon completion, Vale will hold 100% of Aliança Energia’s capital.

(With Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)