Scholarship or fixed income? How investments look after Campos Neto messes up Selic projections

A inflation persistent in U.S and the geopolitical risk arising from war ongoing in the Middle East have weighed on forecasts for the American interest and postponed the expectations of the market – and of the Federal Reserve – for the start of the period of rate cuts there.

But the strength of american economy It’s from dollar not only relate to the fees high in the USA, but also here. The longer the Fed takes to begin monetary easing, the less room there is for our own central bank download the Selic.

This international brake, together with fiscal uncertainties and a risk of inflationary pressure here – resulting precisely from the stronger dollar – have caused the local market to revise upwards its projections for the Selic at the end of the year and also at the end of the cycle of falls.

If about a month ago the financial institutions interviewed by the Central Bank’s Focus Bulletin expected a Selic of 9.00% at the end of 2024 and 8.50% at the end of the cuts cycle, in the latest edition of the publication, these estimates rose to 9.50% and 9.00%, respectively. But there are already those on the market who see Selic at 10.00% or 9.75% at the end of the cycle.

Campos Neto pulled the handbrake?

The determining factor for the upward revision of projections for the Selic terminal came from the BC president himself, Roberto Campos Neto. First, the institution signaled that there would only be another cut of 0.50 percentage points in the Selic. More recently, however, Campos Neto admitted the possibility of reducing the risk of cuts at the next meeting.

So, now that interest rates in Brazil will possibly not fall as much as investors initially expected, what are the prospects for investments?

To evaluate this new scenario, Vinícius Pinheiro and I received, this week, Henrique Castiglione, partner and CEO of EWZ Capitalinvestment advisory linked to the bank BTG Pactual. He talked about fixed income, actions It is real estate fundsin addition to choosing, of course, your bulls and bears of the week.

This episode of the Touros e Ursos podcast is brought to you by BTG Pactual and can be watched in full at this link or in the player below: