A new exclusive research from The Wall Street Journal shows that Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in six of the seven most competitive states in the 2024 election, driven by widespread voter dissatisfaction with the national economy and deep doubts about the Democrat’s capabilities and performance.
Trump maintains a 2 to 8 percentage point lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, both in a ballot test that includes third-party candidates and in a head-to-head matchup against Biden. Wisconsin is the exception, where Biden leads by 3 points on a multiple ballot and is tied in a head-to-head race against Trump.
Biden achieved a remarkable feat in 2020 by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, states in the industrial north that had been moving away from the Democrats and had supported Trump in 2016. He also won by even smaller margins in Georgia and Arizona, states in the south and southwest where Democrats had long-unrealized hopes of victory.
The scenario shows a split in support within Biden’s 2020 coalition, with declining support among black, Hispanic and young voters. About 25% of voters are undecided or support independent candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr..
The poll, conducted March 17-24, included 4,200 voters reached by phone and text, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points for the total sample and 4 points for results in individual states.
The survey also points out that, in each state in the survey, negative views of Biden’s performance exceed positive views by 16 percentage points or more, with the gap exceeding 20 points in four states. In contrast, Trump receives an unfavorable job evaluation for his time in the White House in only one state – Arizona – where negative marks outnumber positive ones by 1 percentage point.
Trump maintains double-digit leads in every state when voters are asked who can best handle the economy, inflation and immigration, but Biden is seen as the preferable candidate on abortion issues, an issue some voters consider decisive in their choice. of your candidate.
