As we reported in a previous article, the Southeast and Central-West regions of Brazil will have a week of predominantly dry and hot weather, with a slight drop in temperatures only in the east of the Southeast on Thursday (25). Now, the most recent rounds of models indicate that this heat is expected to continue, even intensify and cause a new heat wave next week!
Heat wave: is established when temperatures remain much higher than normal in the same region for at least 5 consecutive days. This will be the scenario for much of Central-South Brazil from the end of this week until the first week of May!
From this Thursday (25th), as the cold front moves towards the ocean, a high pressure pattern will begin to intensify over the Midwest and Southeast regions, consequently reducing the formation of clouds and rain, in addition to contributing to the increase in temperatures. The Midwest will be the region most affected by this high pressure system, with maximum temperatures exceeding 32ºC on Thursday afternoon.
New month with risk of very intense rain and arrival of the first polar air mass in the South
According to the ECMWF model, this high pressure in the middle levels of the atmosphere is expected to continue to intensify until the weekend and its area of activity should expand, making the South region also suffers from high temperatures and drier weather, mainly in the west of the states of Paraná and Santa Catarina. On Friday (26) the forecast is that maximum temperatures will exceed 31ºC in cities such as Maringá and Londrina.
The heat will intensify over the weekend!
On Saturday (27), in addition to high pressure, warmer and drier winds coming from the north will intensify over the states of São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina and Mato Grosso do Sul. This type of circulation should increase temperatures even further, resulting in temperatures up to 10°C above normal in cities such as São Paulo, Criciúma, Bauru, Dourado and Porto Alegre.
This mass of hot air will continue to persist on Sunday (28), but will become more intense and restricted to the Southeast and Central-West regions, where almost all cities are expected to record maximum temperatures above 30ºC. In the South, high temperatures will be restricted only to the northwest of Paraná.
O rest of the South is expected to register a new turn in the weather on Sunday, with the formation of low pressure and a new cold front. As a result, temperatures will become milder, especially in the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.
Heat wave continues in early May for the Southeast and Midwest
While the South experiences yet another relief from the heat, even if temporary, the Southeast and Central-West will continue without respite from the heatr. From Monday (29) temperatures are expected to increase even further in these regions, with maximum temperatures well above 30°C on every day of next week in large parts of these regions, thus configuring a period of consecutive days of above-normal heat, which constitutes a heat wave.
According to the extended ECMWF model, Average temperatures are expected to be 3 to 6°C above average during this heat wavemainly in the south of the Central-West and Southeast regions, in addition to the northern portion of the South region. These conditions are expected to persist until at least May 6th.
O ECMWF model predicts a decrease in the intensity of temperature anomalies for the week of May 6th to 13th, with the most intense anomalies being restricted to an area between the south of Mato Grosso do Sul, west of São Paulo, southwest of Minas Gerias and north of Paraná, indicating a weakening of this heat wave. However, in general, temperatures will remain above average throughout the Center-South of the country. We will keep an eye out for forecast updates!
