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The Paraná Pesquisas institute released a survey this Thursday, 28th, where it measured the voting intentions of names identified as possible successors to former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who is ineligible, in an election against current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in 2026. Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) and the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), appear with better placement in a possible election, but lose to Lula in the scenario- research basis.

When voters are informed that Michelle and Tarcísio would have explicit support from Bolsonaro, they technically tie with the current president of the Republic. The names of governors Ratinho Júnior (PSD), Paraná; Romeu Zema (Novo), Minas Gerais; and Ronaldo Caiado (União), Goiás; in addition to senators Tereza Cristina (PP-MS) and Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI).

Although Bolsonaro is ineligible, Paraná Pesquisas also tested a stimulated electoral scenario, in which the former president appears numerically ahead, with 37.1% of voting intentions, but technically tied with Lula, with 35.3%. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.

Next are former presidential candidate Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 7.5% of voting intentions; the Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet (MDB), with 6.1%; and the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSDB), 1.8%. Those who said they would vote blank, null or for none of the names presented were 8%, while 4.2% did not know or did not respond.

The survey was carried out between March 18th and 22nd by the institute, which personally interviewed 2,024 voters in 162 municipalities across the country. The confidence level is 95%.

The former first lady is the one who presents the best performance as Bolsonaro’s political heir against Lula. Michelle appears with 30.9% of voting intentions, while the PT member leads with 36%. The other names fluctuate, but the order is not changed: Ciro, Tebet and Leite.

The survey also measured her performance with Bolsonaro’s explicit support. In this scenario, Michelle reaches 43.4% and is technically tied with Lula, who has 44.5%. There are no other names tested in this scenario with the support of the former president, which also occurs in the cases of the other candidates mentioned below.

The São Paulo governor appears with a greater distance from Lula. According to the survey, Tarcísio has 23.3% against 36.2% for the president. However, like Michelle Bolsonaro, he technically ties with the PT member when voters are informed that he would have Bolsonaro’s support: the governor rises to 40.8% of voting intentions, while the president has 43.9%.

In another scenario, the governor of Paraná, with 14.6% of voting intentions, is technically tied for second place with Ciro Gomes, who has 12.9%. Lula leads with 36.6%.

With Bolsonaro’s explicit support, Ratinho reaches 35.3%, but is still behind the current president, with 44.6%.

Zema lives in a similar situation to Ratinho. The Minas Gerais governor appears with 14.1%, but is also tied for second place with Ciro, who has 12.8%. Lula, in this scenario, has 36.8% of voting intentions. Even with Bolsonaro’s support, the governor of Novo is behind Lula: the Minas Gerais native has 34.6% against 44.5% for the current president of the Republic.

Caiado is the one with the worst performance among the governors tested by Paraná Pesquisas. With 7.7% of voting intentions, he appears in fourth place in the tested scenario, but is technically tied with Tebet, who has 9%, in third. Ciro Gomes has 13.9% and Lula, 36.3%.

Goiano reaches 32.6% with the support of Bolsonaro, while Lula has 44.9%

Like Caiado, Tereza Cristina is also in fourth place, technically tied for third place with Simone Tebet. The senator has 7% and Lula’s minister, 8.9%. The president leads with 36.6% of voting intentions.

Former Bolsonaro Minister of Agriculture, Tereza Cristina rises to 32.2% with the support of the former president. Lula leads with 44.5% in this scenario.

The senator and president of the PP appears in last place, with 3.4% of voting intentions. Eduardo Leite has 4.4%, which means a technical tie between the two. Lula leads with 36.9%, followed by Ciro (14%) and Tebet (9.2%). The former minister of the Civil House reaches 29.1% with the support of Bolsonaro. In this case, Lula has 44.9%.