Could climate-related tragedies, like the one that happened in southern ES, be avoided?

* Giuliano Battisti

Due to the heavy rains that hit the south of Espírito Santo over the weekend, many municipalities are experiencing dramatic moments. In addition to the deaths already confirmed, we see thousands of homeless and homeless people, destroyed properties and bridges, closed lanes, landslides on slopes and other consequences that greatly affect the affected communities.

At this moment, there are many efforts from different sectors of society. Solidarity is a striking characteristic of the population and, sometimes, ends up being the greatest help received by many of these families.

In turn, managers and public bodies strive to provide a quick response to the affected population. Initially, we act to rescue and shelter people in a safe place and then reestablish the basic infrastructure, ensuring that they reach at least the minimum necessary for their survival.

Then, so that as much normality as possible can be reestablished, financial resources are provided for the reconstruction necessary for the gradual return to routine in these affected municipalities.

It is a fact that, in recent decades, the population has often found itself facing public calamities due to heavy rains. Due to its location, Espírito Santo has a tropical climate, characterized by more intense rainfall in the summer months.

This is the period when most attention should be paid to the risks of increased rainfall and it is at this time that, on a recurring basis, the worst catastrophes due to flooding and landslides are recorded. The big question arises: could such events be avoided? Who is to blame or responsible?

The answer cannot be simplistic because, in the same way, the cause of tragedies is not and it is up to us to reflect. Much of the problem occurs due to the disorderly occupation of the population in risky locations, whether close to riverbanks or on hillsides.

This type of occupation, which occurs in a large part of the national territory, has its origins in several social and economic factors and also the absence of effective public policies. This problem worsens and reaches a dangerous synergy when the rain variable is added to this complex equation.

Rain is a natural phenomenon that, although its change in intensity and location is much discussed due to the effects of climate change, it is important to be prepared for the different situations and consequences of its incidence.

When rainwater hits the ground, it has a few paths to follow. Among them, we have some that are considered the most common. Either it will infiltrate the soil or it will turn into surface runoff.

The first is associated with an increased risk of landslides, as waterlogged soil tends to slide and slide, detaching itself from slopes and embankments.

The second, in turn, is very important in cases of floods and flooding, as it adds to the flow of rivers, increasing their volume, sometimes abruptly, reaching cities close to their banks.

Municipalities have in their legislation an Urban Master Plan (PDU) or a Municipal Master Plan (PDM). It is in them that the locations where properties and housing can be built, among others, are identified. On the other hand, the Brazilian Forest Code, Law 12,651, of 2012, defines the so-called Permanent Preservation Areas (APP), which define the distances from rivers that must be protected and existing areas on hilltops.

The maintenance and conservation of APPs contribute fundamentally to reducing environmental risks and the vulnerability of urban populations. One of the problems is the irregular occupation of these places, which are always the most affected by rising water levels in rivers or landslides.

The topic becomes more complex, as these occupations are considered liabilities inherited by current managers who, even though they are not to blame for the previous occupation, end up becoming responsible for avoiding or minimizing the impacts that this reality imposes on the population.

The solution, in theory, would involve removing these properties and their residents from risk areas and not allowing new occupations. However, such measures are unfeasible and unfeasible at this time, and require investments not available to the various municipalities.

Furthermore, many cities already have consolidated occupation, making the task even more difficult for public managers. Studies also indicate the installation of dams and other drainage devices to solve the problems. In addition to a new approach and practices for river basin management. But these are actions that require large investments, but have already been adopted in several other countries.

We are currently left with a mitigating solution that many countries adopt for extreme natural phenomena, such as tsunamis and earthquakes. These measures would involve contingency measures, with investment in more surveying and mapping of risk areas, mathematical modeling that considers potential locations affected by water overflows and floods. Taking into account the rainfall history, land use and occupation and the geographic characteristics of the region.

With this and other information provided to the competent authorities, an awareness and ongoing training program for the inhabitants of these regions would be implemented. Combined with intelligent and dynamic monitoring, with a variety of devices, when an increase in risks is identified in these regions, especially during periods of intense rain, these people can be moved to safe, previously identified locations in an orderly and planned manner. With all the necessary procedures defined for each location and its respective characteristics.

In this way, we know that material and social damage would not be eliminated. However, more lives could be saved and given opportunities so that each family, even if in difficulty, affected by the catastrophe, can have a new chance to start their life over in another place. And the public authorities, with prior planning, can guarantee the population housing and assistance to the destitute, among others, as recommended in article six of our Constitution.

* Giuliano Battisti is a Civil, Environmental and Occupational Safety engineer and Institutional Relations manager at Crea-ES

This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of A Gazeta.

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