Paraná Polls show candidate for re-election with 62.3% of the votes; vice-governor Geraldo Júnior (MDB) appears in 2nd
A survey by Paraná Pesquisas released this Thursday (28.mar.2024) shows that the current mayor of Salvador, Bruno Reis (União Brasil), easily leads the electoral dispute in the capital of Bahia. With 62.3% voting intentions, he would be re-elected in the 1st round. Municipal elections will be held in October 2024.
The candidate for re-election has a wide advantage, of 48.5 pp (percentage points), over 2nd place, the vice-governor of Bahia, Geraldo Junior (MDB) – which adds up to 13.8% of voting intentions.
The survey was carried out from March 22 to 27, 2024. 800 voters were interviewed through in-person interviews. The survey’s margin of error is 3.5 pp and the confidence level is 95%. Registration with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) is BA-02254/2024. Here’s the complete of the study (PDF – 487 kB).
The pre-candidate for Mayor of Salvador for Psol, Kleber Rosa, appears next, with 2.8% of the votes. Luciana Buck (New) has 2.4% of voting intentions. Others 5.3% did not respond or said they did not know.
Read the 1st stimulated scenario below (when the names of the candidates are presented):
- Bruno Reis (União Brasil) – 62.3% (it was 62.7% in January);
- Geraldo Junior (MDB) – 13.8% (was 12.1%);
- Kleber Rosa (Psol) – 2.8% (was 2.9%);
- Luciana Buck (New) – 2.4% (was 1.6%);
- none/blank/null – 13.6% (was 14.1%);
- don’t know/didn’t answer – 5.3% (was 6.6%).
APPROVAL BY BRUNO REIS
According to the survey, Bruno Reis’ administration is approved by 72.1% of voters and disapproved by 24.1%. Another 3.8% said they did not know or did not respond.
Regarding the evaluation of the command of the Salvador city hall, half (50.2%) of those interviewed by Paraná Pesquisas consider “excellent/good”while 16.9% evaluate it as “bad/terrible”.
Read below the assessment of the Salvador mayor’s administration:
- “excellent”: 14.1%;
- “good”: 36.1%;
- “regular”: 31.8%;
- “bad”: 7.1%;
- “terrible”: 9.8%.
PT AND PL SUPPORT
Bruno Reis is aligned with right-wing agendas.
On March 21, João Roma, state president of former president Jair Bolsonaro’s PL, said that the party should support his candidacy. The statement was given in an interview with the program “Linha de Frente”, from Aratu TV.
Geraldo Júnior, who is deputy to the governor of Bahia, Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), should receive the support of the PT – from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).
SEARCH AGGREGATOR
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APPROVAL
Polling companies do not necessarily use the same question wording or answer options when evaluating the performance of governments and officials.
AND inaccurate affirm that the voter approves or disapproves of the work of a government official or public administration if the question gives these 6 options as answers: “excellent”, “good”, “regular”, “bad”, “terrible” or “don’t know or didn’t answer”.
It is common to understand that the sum of the answers “excellent” It is “good” would be synonymous with “approves the government”. And that the sum of responses “bad” It is “terrible” would be equivalent to “government disapproval”. This understanding is incorrect because it disregards the portion of voters who responded “regular”. Respondents who choose the category “regular” they can either approve or disapprove of the administration or the ruler.
The answer options mentioned above (“excellent”, “good”, “regular”, “bad” or “terrible”) are an idiosyncrasy in Brazilian research. In the country where the most public opinion studies are carried out on the planet, the United States, the most common thing is that the question is always direct and binary, with only two answer options: approves or disapproves.
O PowerDateresearch company of the Group Power360asks a direct question about the federal government in their polls, asking whether the voter approves or disapproves. In the case of evaluation of the personal work of the President of the Republicthe question is whether the interviewee considers that it is “excellent”, “good”, “regular”, “bad” or “terrible”.
