Israel says it has taken control of the Rafah crossing in Gaza: why the city is so strategic

Rafah, considered the last frontier of the war in Gaza, may be about to be taken by Israel.

This Tuesday (7/5), the Israeli military stated that it had taken operational control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing, which is on the border with Egypt.

Witnesses in Rafah told the BBC that throughout the night there were flares lighting up the sky and the constant sound of shelling.

If the ground offensive goes ahead, there are fears there will be dire humanitarian consequences in a city full of Palestinians who have fled other parts of Gaza.

Since the beginning of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian city of Rafah has been a center of refuge for the civilian population and a gateway for humanitarian aid.

Located in the southern part of the Gaza Strip and with an area of ​​around 55 square km, the city is the last access to Gaza not yet controlled by Israel and has been for decades an arrival point for assistance and an exit door for patients. , wounded and travelers.

After the start of the current war — triggered by the surprise attack that Hamas launched against Israel on October 7, in which 1,200 people were killed and around 240 were taken hostage, according to Israeli authorities — Rafah became the last refuge for more than a million Palestinians who have been displaced from their cities due to bombings and ground incursions by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

As a result of the massive arrival of people, the population of Rafah increased from around 280 thousand inhabitants to almost 1.4 million people, which is why it was classified by the head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, Jan Egeland, as “the largest camp of displaced people around the world”.

But the city’s status as a refuge for those fleeing war began to be questioned in February this year, when Israel launched an operation that left dozens of Palestinians dead and allowed the rescue of two hostages from Hamas.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israel Defense Forces to prepare the evacuation of civilians from Rafah in order to launch a major offensive there.

This announcement aroused concern in the international community, triggering a flood of criticism and warnings against Israel’s plans, which feared there could be a “humanitarian catastrophe”.

These fears returned on Monday (6/5), when the IDF began distributing leaflets in Rafah with instructions for around 100,000 people to evacuate an area in the east of the city and head towards Khan Younis and Al-Mawasi.

Hours later, Israeli Forces began a series of attacks on an area of ​​the city as part of a “limited operation”.

However, Rafah has an importance that goes far beyond this operation.

“It is impossible to achieve the objective of this war without eliminating Hamas and leaving four Hamas battalions in Rafah,” Netanyahu’s office said in February.

This is the argument that the prime minister has been insisting on for months.

Israel claims that thousands of Hamas fighters — and some of its leaders — are in Rafah.

He says he wants to put an end to what he estimates to be around four Hamas battalions present there to end his campaign aimed at eliminating the Palestinian group’s military power.

It is estimated that around 200,000 Israelis had to abandon their homes after the start of the war with Hamas and move to safer areas of the country, away from the border areas where they could be targeted by Hamas or its ally in Lebanon. the Shiite militia Hezbollah.

Many of these people had been living for years with rockets that were launched from Gaza at Israel from time to time, a situation that Netanyahu’s government tolerated for some time, until finally responding with a brief conflict that gave rise to a new ceasefire.

That was the status quo region until the October 7 attack.

Since then, neither the Israeli authorities nor many of its citizens consider it an acceptable risk to live with an armed Hamas in power in Gaza.

However, since the beginning of the conflict, numerous political and military analysts have warned that Netanyahu’s idea of ​​eradicating Hamas is very difficult — or even impossible — and that the human costs of the attempt would be very high, given the tunnels that Hamas has built. under Gaza for your protection. And on the surface, it is difficult to differentiate between combatants and civilians.

The Israeli government guarantees that its forces are very careful not to affect the civilian population, which has not prevented around 34,000 people from dying in Gaza since the start of the conflict — most of them women and children, according to the Gaza Strip’s Ministry of Health. Gaza, controlled by Hamas.

BBC correspondent Frank Gardner warns that it is not clear what Israel could achieve with a military operation in Rafah.

“The last five months of devastating conflict in Gaza have failed to bring about the long-awaited release of the hostages. The last time a significant number of hostages left Gaza alive was in November and that was as a result of a carefully negotiated exchange between Qatar and Egypt”, he says.

“The Israeli army assesses that four Hamas battalions survived above and below ground in Rafah and they want to finish the job as planned. But even if they manage to destroy these units, the chances of the hostages escaping unharmed are slim.”

Politically, what happens in Rafah could affect months-long negotiations with Hamas, mediated by Qatar and Egypt, to reach a ceasefire, as well as the release of some of the Israeli hostages and Palestinians detained in Israel.

However, the true scope of the ceasefire is unclear, as Netanyahu’s government said the deal was far from meeting Israel’s requirements and sent a commission to Cairo.

Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised the proposal and stated that it was “extraordinarily generous” on Israel’s part, and that Hamas should therefore accept it.

However, that week passed without progress in negotiations.

An Israeli military escalation in Rafah could increase tensions between Netanyahu’s government and the United States, as President Joe Biden has made clear his rejection of an offensive without first a plan to protect the civilian population there.

According to the White House, Biden confirmed his position to Netanyahu during a telephone conversation on Monday.

An escalation in Rafah could also affect the US government’s efforts to reach an agreement to normalize diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which have already been damaged by the Hamas attack on October 7.

To move forward on this path, Saudi Arabia hopes that Israel will agree to end the war with Hamas and commit to following a path that leads to the creation of a Palestinian state.

The normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is seen as an important step forward not only because of its bilateral implications, but because both countries — as well as the United States — view Iran’s policy in the Middle East and its plan with suspicion. of nuclear development.

Another vital relationship that could be damaged by an offensive in Rafah is that between Israel and Egypt, which was the first Arab state to recognize Israel.

Since the start of the current conflict, the government of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has been concerned that the fallout from the violence in Gaza could end up driving Hamas fighters and leaders to Sinai.

Cairo does not look favorably on members of Hamas, an organization that originated as a branch of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and which it considers a threat to its security.

Furthermore, Egypt is concerned about the impact on the humanitarian situation that a large-scale Israeli offensive on Rafah could have.

In recent months, there have been numerous voices in the international community that have warned of the danger of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who have taken refuge in Rafah being pushed by an offensive towards the border with Egypt. Cairo has reiterated on numerous occasions that it does not intend to welcome Palestinian refugees on its territory.

The BBC’s Frank Gardner considers this the “most worrying” aspect.

“Israel estimates the number of Gazans potentially affected (by a possible offensive) at 100,000. Palestinian aid agencies say the number is closer to 250,000. Many of these people have already been displaced from their homes in the north of the territory,” points.

Although Israel has presented this operation as a limited attack against specific Hamas targets in Rafah, there is always the risk of escalation.

In fact, Islamic Jihad — another Palestinian armed group allied with Hamas in Gaza — has been launching rockets into southern Israel.

The Israeli offensive also put Jordan, the second Arab neighbor with whom Israel has established diplomatic relations, on alert.

In a meeting with Biden at the White House, King Abdullah II warned that an Israeli offensive in Rafah could cause the conflict to spread to the region and warned that it could lead to a “new massacre”.