O Ukrainian army is for the first time employing US-supplied long-range missiles. A military airfield and Russian troop positions were bombed. The president Joe Biden In February, it authorized the delivery of Atacms missiles (in English for Army Tactical Missile System).
Last month, they were included in a US$300 million package released by presidential decree. Now, the supply can gain a new scale, with the billion-dollar budget allocation by Congress. More Himars missiles (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) should also arrive, which, like the Atacms, can reach 300 km.
Crucially, the Ukrainians will also receive artillery ammunition. Lately, the ratio between Russian and Ukrainian ammunition availability had reached 10 to 1.
After a barrage of artillery fire, the Russians send in conscripts fresh from prison to draw small arms fire from the Ukrainians and reveal the enemy’s positions. Then the Russian professional soldiers advance. The tactic is called “meat grinder”.
Ukrainian soldiers Photograph: Serhiy Morgunov/The Washington Post
American provisioning includes cluster bombs, which are banned by 124 countries but not by the US, Russia and Ukraine. The use by Ukraine is effective because of the arrangement of the Russian infantry’s trenches and attack fronts, in densely concentrated lines in open fields. Exclusively military targets are hit, far from urban agglomerations.
In January 2023, the US agreed to send 31 Abrams M1A1 tanks, the most robust land war machine, to Ukraine. After losing five of them to Russian drone attacks, the Ukrainians began to avoid using them. Now, tactical training received at American bases in Germany will allow the tanks to be used with less risk.
Ukrainian reconnaissance and drone strike actions also cause heavy losses of Russian tanks and armored vehicles. However, Russia’s stock replenishment capacity turned out to be greater than Ukraine’s, even with NATO’s help. And especially after the freezing of large-scale American aid by the Trumpist caucus in the Chamber for six months.
In June, the first six American F-16 fighters should begin arriving — which represents half of a squadron. By the same time, 12 Ukrainian pilots will have completed their 10-month training in Denmark, the UK and the USA. In total, 45 fighters were donated by European countries, after the American government gave the green light in August.
It is difficult to ensure coherent air defense with so few fighters and the urgency of integrating them with other military assets in a real war, with no chance of prior exercises in the operational theater. But it will be the beginning of the end of Russia’s air sovereignty, which allowed it to attack Ukrainian targets with air-to-ground missiles from Russian territory with impunity.
In total, 12 Ukrainian pilots are completing training to fly the F-16 fighters that will be delivered by the United States. There are also 45 fighter jets donated by European countries. (AP Photo/Burhan Ozbilici, File)
The impact of all this new resource allocation obviously depends on Russia’s ability to respond. A survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), based in Washington, reveals intense replenishment of Russian arsenal stocks.
In December 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MD) announced the delivery of 1,500 tanks, 2,200 armored combat vehicles, 1,400 missiles and artillery weapons and 22,000 drones. The numbers are probably inflated, but something close would be significant.
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Russia converted to a war economy, as happened with Nazi Germany. The defense budget for 2024, at $109 billion, is the largest in post-Soviet Russia. It exceeds social spending and represents 6% of GDP, compared to 3.9% in 2023.
According to the MD, this year the Russian arms industry will supply more than 36 thousand types of basic equipment, 16.5 million weapons and more than 1 million portable weapons and protection and communication equipment. All of this should be viewed with suspicion. But it is visible the conversion of civilian manufacturing plants into military ones, the supply of weapons manufacturing machines and chips from China, drones from Iran, artillery shells and missiles from North Korea.
Given all this, the American and European perspective is that military aid will allow Ukraine to stabilize the front by mid-year, not necessarily recover territory. War is unpredictable. We will continue to evaluate.
