Despite the drop in the prices of soybeans, iron and oil, the positive balance of trade increased in April. The Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC) announced yesterday that the country exported US$9.041 billion more than it imported last month.
This result represents an increase of 13.7% compared to the same period of the previous year and is the second best for April, second only to the record reached in April 2021, of US$9.963 billion.
The trade balance surplus now accumulates US$27.736 billion in the first four months of 2024, which constitutes the highest result ever recorded for this period since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989. This value represents an increase of 17.7% in compared to the same months of the previous year.
Trade balance
Regarding monthly performance, exports grew at a faster pace than imports. In April, Brazil sold US$30.92 billion abroad, which represents an increase of 5.7% compared to the same month in 2023. On the other hand, imports totaled US$21.879 billion, registering an increase of 2.2%. Part of this growth can be attributed to the greater number of working days in April this year, given that the extended Holy Week holiday in 2024 occurred in March.
With regard to exports, the increase in the volume of oil, sugar and fuels was the main driver of this growth. This increase offset the drop in exports of soybeans, whose harvest has already been harvested, and of motor vehicles, affected by the crisis in Argentina.
As for imports, the reduction in purchases of fertilizers, derivatives and chemical compounds was the main factor that contributed to containing the increase in foreign purchases.
MDIC
After reaching a record in 2022, amid the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, commodities have registered a decline since mid-2023. The price of iron ore, for example, which had been on an upward trajectory for a few months, suffered a drop due to the economic slowdown in China, the main buyer of this product.
In April, the volume of exported goods increased by 22.5%, driven by the greater number of working days and the increase in oil exports, while average prices registered a fall of 6.8% compared to the same month of the year previous. In the case of imports, the volume purchased increased by 24.8%, driven by the economic recovery, while average prices fell by 8.1%.
Regarding the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, the director of Statistics and Foreign Trade Studies at MDIC, Herlon Brandão, explained that the impact of these climate disasters on the trade balance will be observed from May onwards. As most of the soybean crop has already been harvested, it is still necessary to assess the effects not only on the affected products, but also on the state’s export infrastructure.
LOL
Brandão highlighted that Rio Grande do Sul is the sixth largest exporting state in the country, representing 6.6% of the total value of Brazilian exports last year. Soy is the main product exported by the state, accounting for 18% of the total sold abroad.
In April, the government revised downwards the trade surplus projection for this year, reducing it from US$94.4 billion to US$73.5 billion, a drop of 25.7% compared to 2023. The next projection will be released in July.
According to the MDIC, exports are expected to decrease by 2.1%, totaling US$332.6 billion at the end of the year. On the other hand, imports are expected to increase 7.6%, reaching US$259.1 billion. The forecast is that imports will increase due to the economic recovery, which boosts consumption, in a scenario of less volatile international prices than at the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
These forecasts are more pessimistic than those of the financial market. The Focus bulletin, a survey of market analysts released weekly by the Central Bank, projects a surplus of US$79.75 billion for this year.
(With Agência Brasil).
