Crude glide bombs – with removable wings and bolt-on satellite guidance kits – are arguably the decisive weapons in the 25th month of Russia’s wider war against Ukraine.
Possibly more decisive than suicide drones with first-person view. Possibly even more than the traditional king of battle: artillery.
And currently, there is very little Ukraine can do to respond. Its best missiles and air defense systems are in desperately short supply. Their ex-Soviet fighters do not have the range to face Russian bombers. And their old European F-16s, which could give the Ukrainians a combat opportunity, have not yet arrived.
Dropping a hundred or more KAB glide bombs a day from a distance of up to 40 miles, Russian air force Sukhoi fighter-bombers systematically demolish Ukrainian defenses, facilitating the advance of Russian army assault groups, albeit still at great cost.
The KABs are the main reason why the Ukrainian garrison in the eastern town of Avdiivka finally retreated last month after a brutal four-month battle. The other main reason, of course, is that Russia-friendly Republicans in the US Congress cut off aid to Ukraine starting in October, depriving Ukrainian forces of vital ammunition.
At the height of the battle for Avdiivka in mid-February, the Russian Air Force launched 250 KABs in just two days. “These bombs completely destroy any position,” wrote Egor Sugar, a soldier with the 3rd Ukrainian Assault Brigade, who covered the withdrawal of the Avdiivka garrison.
Avdiivka’s bombing campaign could “herald a change in Russian operations elsewhere along the front line,” warned the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, D.C., when Avdiivka fell.
ISW was right. It is now common practice for the Russian air force to concentrate its bombing raids on any city the Russian army wants to take. “Before the attack, Russian planes drop KAB-type guided bombs on Ukrainian positions and continue preparatory artillery bombardment,” explained Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight.
Post-bombing Russian ground attacks “while relatively small in scale, are consistent and frequent,” Frontelligence Insight noted. “When combined with aerial bombing, artillery strikes and drone launches, these attacks prove to be considerably costly” for ammunition-starved Ukrainian troops.
Thus, KAB bombings drove the Ukrainians out of Avdiivka and, in the following weeks, also from the villages west of Avdiivka. With the clear intention of intensifying their attacks on Bilohorivka, 89 kilometers north of Avdiivka, the Russians are also launching more KABs towards that settlement.
The Ukrainian air force briefly fought the Russians in the weeks after the fall of Avdiivka. Apparently deploying mobile American-made Patriot missile launchers – each with a range of up to 90 miles. The Ukrainians shot down 13 Russian Sukhoi Su-34s and Sukhoi Su-35s in 13 days.
But then, on March 9, a skilled — or at least lucky — Russian drone operator spotted a team responsible for Patriot missile launchers that was on the move about 20 miles from the front line. He reported the enemy position to an artillery team equipped with Iskander ballistic missiles. The Iskander attack apparently destroyed the launcher and killed the Ukrainian crews.
Without U.S. assistance from Russia-friendly Republicans, the Ukrainian air force cannot easily replace any lost Patriot launchers. Considering that the Air Force only has about two dozen launchers in total, it should come as no surprise that after the March 9 attack, the service apparently moved its surviving Patriots further away from the front lines.
At the same time, Russian technicians tweaked the design of the KAB bombs to increase the range from 25 miles to 40 miles. Abruptly, the balance of power changed. Ukrainian air defenses could no longer combat Russian bombers.
And don’t count on Ukraine’s MiG and Sukhoi fighters to pick up the slack in air defense along the front line. The Ukrainian air force’s dozens of Mikoyan MiG-29s and Sukhoi Su-27s can detect aerial targets about 50 or 60 miles away with their N019, N001 or N010 radars and attack them from about half that distance with R missiles. -27.
This means crossing the border to engage KAB-armed Russian jets – something Ukrainian pilots do not routinely do. And for good reason. Ukrainian fighters do not have jammers. When flying near or within Russian lines, they are extremely vulnerable to Russian air defenses.
The 50 or 60 Lockheed Martin F-16s that Ukraine is expected to receive from Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway could give Ukrainian commanders new options. Equipped with the AN/ALQ-213 self-protection system – which combines sensors, jammers and countermeasures such as chaff and flares to protect a fighter – F-16s can safely fly closer to the front line, or even fly over them.
Detecting targets up to 70 miles away with their AN/APG-66(V)2 radars, F-16 pilots could launch AIM-120 missiles from 57 miles away – far enough to hit Russian fighters without venturing out. deep into Russian airspace.
Perhaps most importantly, the AIM-120 is a “fire and forget” missile with its own radar. This way, a pilot can maneuver right after firing the missile. The best R-27ER is, on the other hand, a semi-active missile. The pilot must illuminate the target with his own radar throughout the R-27’s flight. This exposes you to enemy fire.
No one should claim that an F-16 firing an AIM-120 missile is a superweapon or invulnerable to enemy missiles. Once they enter combat in the coming weeks or months, Ukraine will lose F-16s and pilots – potentially a lot of them. The big question is what Kiev gains from this sacrifice.
If Ukrainian commanders truly understand the danger that Russian KABs pose to Ukrainian positions on the ground, they must deploy F-16s aggressively – and hit Russian Sukhois with their lethal glide bombs.
“The challenge posed by the extensive use of KABs is likely to persist,” explained Frontelligence Insight, “and a solution can only come through the additional acquisition and deployment of Patriot and F-16 air defense systems equipped with advanced air-to-air missile air defense systems.”
SOURCE: Forbes
