In 2023, there was an increase of 6.98% in proven oil reserves compared to 2022. There was also an increase of 3.81% in the volume relative to the sum of proven and probable reserves and 2.26% in the sum of proven, probable and possible. The data are from the Annual Bulletin of Resources and Reserves of the National Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP).
Proved reserves correspond to the amount of oil or natural gas that the analysis of geoscience and engineering data indicates with reasonable certainty as commercially recoverable, on the reference date of the Annual Resources and Reserves Bulletin. When probabilistic methods are used, the probability that the quantity recovered is equal to or greater than the estimate must be at least 90%.
In probable reserves, the probability that the quantity recovered is equal to or greater than the sum of the estimated proven and probable reserves must be at least 50%. In the case of possible reserves, the probability that the quantity recovered is greater than or equal to the sum of the estimates of proven, probable and possible reserves must be at least 10%.
Companies contracted for exploration and production in Brazil declared 15.894 billion barrels of oil from proven reserves; 22.779 billion barrels of proven plus probable reserves; and 27.531 billion barrels of proven, probable and possible reserves.
Thus, the replacement rate of proven oil reserves was 183.54%, representing around 2.278 billion barrels in new reserves. The reserve replacement index indicates the relationship between the appropriate volume and the volume produced in the period considered.
Brazil’s position
According to the ANP, the changes in the volume of Brazilian oil and natural gas reserves are due to the production carried out during the year, additional reserves arising from new development projects, declarations of commerciality and review of field reserves due to different technical and economic.
According to geologist and professor Jorge Picanço Figueiredo, from the Institute of Geosciences and Petroleum Engineering at the Polytechnic School of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Brazil’s position on the international scene in terms of proven reserves is not that significant. “The United States has 68.8 billion proven reserves, Russia has 107.8 billion, Saudi Arabia has 297 billion, Iraq has 145 billion, Iran has 157 billion, Venezuela has 303 billion,” he said, adding that the Oil from Brazil is of good quality.
The professor remembers that Brazil produces 3.5 million barrels of oil per day. “In 365 days, we produce 1.27 billion per year. We produce a giant field per year. Our production is high, it is far above what we consume. We consume around 2.5 million barrels per day. This additional 1 million barrels is sold on the foreign market.”
Figueiredo highlights that oil will still be the main energy source for the next 50 years. “The world consumes 105 million barrels of oil per day. Brazil consumes 2.5 million. We contribute 3.4% of world production.”
