Harvest Rally drops soybean productivity in MS to 51.2 bags per hectare – Rural Side

With the use of satellite images complemented by surveys with Agroconsult’s contact network, monitoring of the input market and field analysis of the Harvest Rally point to a new scenario for the soybean harvest in Mato Grosso do Sul and Brazil. The negative revisions occurred in productivity in Mato Grosso do Sul, with a reduction from 57.5 to 51.2 bags per hectare. In São Paulo, the revision was from 55 to 48 bags per hectare and, in Paraná, from 58 to 56.1 bags per hectare. The numbers were released today.

“With the adjustments in the planted area, we were able to fulfill the Rally’s initial objective of reducing the asymmetry of market information. Although this new area is new information for a large part of the sector, many were already working with larger areas and production volumes, as is the case with several soybean trading companies that use the same methodology to generate estimates”, explains Debastiani.

With the implementation of a crop assessment tool that uses algorithms to analyze satellite images, Agroconsult, organizer of the technical expedition, updated the Brazilian area for the 2023/24 harvest to 46.4 million hectares – 753 thousand hectares above the last projection. The production estimate was raised to 156.5 million tons (compared to 152.2 million tons in the last projection), with average productivity estimated at 56.2 bags per hectare.

Harvest progress in MS

On March 22, the soybean harvested area monitored by the Siga-MS Project (Agribusiness Geographic Information System) reached 87.3% in Mato Grosso do Sul. The southern region has the most advanced harvest, with an average of 91.6%, while the central region has an average of 85.5% and the northern region has an average of 72.5%. The area harvested to date, according to estimates, is approximately 3.723 million hectares.

The estimate, published by the Casa Rural bulletin, from the Famasul System (Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of MS), is that the harvest will be 6.5% larger in relation to the previous cycle (2022/2023), reaching an area of ​​4.265 million of hectares. The estimated productivity is 54 bags per hectare. The average number of bags per hectare is within the productive potential observed in the last 5 harvests in the State. This generates an expected production of 13.818 million tons.

Rally x Conab

Compared to Conab’s numbers, Agroconsult’s new estimates for the 23/24 harvest point to an increase of 707 thousand hectares in the planted area in the Central-West region, 445 thousand hectares in the Southeast region, 78 thousand hectares in the South and of 59 thousand hectares in the Northeast, totaling a difference of 1.2 million hectares. Only the North region suffered an adjustment of 39 thousand hectares less than in official data.

In relation to 23/24 soybean production, the data points to approximately 10 million tons more compared to Conab. Of the total, 5.4 million tons result from the difference between the estimated productivity for the states and 4.2 million tons refer to the differences in the estimated planted area.

Corn second harvest

The Harvest Rally will continue in May and June, with six teams evaluating second-crop corn crops across the country. The areas visited account for 97% of the soybean production area and 72% of the corn area.

Organized by Agroconsult, the Safra Rally, since January in its 21st edition, has covered 15 states (MT, RO, GO, MG, MS, PR, SC, SP, RS, MA, PI, TO, BA, PA and DF) during the crop development and harvesting phases.