Dispute for mayor of Belo Horizonte has a triple draw

A survey by Paraná Pesquisas released this Thursday (28.mar.2024) shows a triple tie in the dispute for mayor of Belo Horizonte, capital of Minas Gerais, between former state deputy João Leite (PSDB), senator Carlos Viana (Podemos ) and state deputy Bruno Engler (PL). The latter is from the same party and must have the formal support of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

The 3 pre-candidates have 16.6%, 16.2% and 14.9% of voting intentions in the 1st stimulated scenario of the 1st round of the study. The survey’s margin of error is 3.3 percentage points, plus or minus.

The survey was carried out from March 22 to 27 and polled and interviewed 900 voters in person. The confidence interval is 95%. The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number MG-08204/2024. Here is the full text (PDF – 677 kB).

In 2023, in a radio interview ItatiaiaBolsonaro said that Engler was the “future mayor” from Belo Horizonte.

Although President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has not announced his support for any of the possible pre-candidates yet, federal deputy Rogerio Correia appears in the polls as a possible PT (Workers’ Party) candidate.

Here is the 1st stimulated scenario of the 1st round:

• João Leite (PSDB) – 16.6%;
• Carlos Viana (Podemos) – 16.2%;
• Bruno Engler (PL) – 14.9%;
• Duda Salabert (PDT) – 9.6%;
• Fuad Noman (PSD) – 8.6%;
• Gabriel Azevedo (MDB) – 6.4%;
• Rogério Correia (PT) – 5.8%;
• Bella Gonçalves (Psol) – 0.9%;
• Luísa Barreto (New) – 0.9%;
• don’t know/didn’t answer – 6.8%;
• none/blank/null – 13.4%.

In a scenario without the names of Carlos Viana, Bella Gonçalves and Luísa Barreto, Bruno Engler starts to occupy numerically 2nd place, with 16.7% of voting intentions, while João Leite advances to 22.6%.

Here is the 2nd stimulated scenario of the 1st round:

• João Leite (PSDB) – 22.6%;
• Bruno Engler (PL) – 16.7%;
• Duda Salabert (PDT) – 11.0%;
• Fuad Noman (PSD) – 9.3%;
• Gabriel Azevedo (MDB) – 8.3%;
• Rogério Correia (PT) – 8%;
• don’t know/didn’t answer – 8.1%;
• none/blank/null – 16%.

MAYOR’S EVALUATION

Paraná Pesquisas also asked how voters in the capital evaluate the work of Mayor Fuad Noman (PSD). Here are the results:

• Approve – 50.8%;
• Disapprove – 43.3%;
• don’t know/didn’t answer – 5.9%.

MAYOR’S EVALUATION

In another question, the company measured the opinion of interviewees from Belo Horizonte about the administration of governor Romeu Zema (Novo-Mg). Here are the results:

• Approve – 59.3%;
• Disapprove – 37.0%;
• don’t know/didn’t answer – 3.7%.

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