Joe Biden is, at the same time, 11 points ahead of Donald Trump and 18 points behind. Six months before the election, the script for the American election could be a film about a multiverse – because almost anything is possible and because the public is exhausted by the formula.
Interest in the race among Americans is at its lowest in nearly 20 years, according to an NBC poll. 64% say they are very involved, a drop of 13 percentage points compared to 2020. In a country where voting is not mandatory, this indifference is the central problem for both campaigns at the moment.
If only those who voted in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections are considered, for example, that is where the Democrat is 11 points ahead, according to a survey by the National Opinion Research Center (Norc). Conversely, Trump has an 18-point lead over those who could, but did not participate in any of the elections.
Just as important is where these people vote. In a total electorate of 161 million people, the next few months of campaigning will focus on the 26 million, or about 16%, who live in the six states where there is no clear allegiance to any party, known as the “pendulum”: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Running on the outside is North Carolina. Although Democrats haven’t won the state since 2008, they have never been more hopeful about an upset than they are now.
In the average of national voting intentions from the research aggregator Real Clear Politics, Trump appears numerically ahead (46.6% to 45.1%). If only the six (or seven) states actually in dispute are taken into account, the score favors the Republican even more (47.9% to 44.7%). These polls, however, consider the total number of voters eligible to vote – and many will likely stay home on November 5th.
The main reasons for greater support for Trump are dissatisfaction with Biden’s performance in the economy, although the numbers are not exactly bad, and in immigration. Even among Democrats, but especially among independents, the record flow of irregular arrivals across the southern border is a concern.
There is also Biden’s age, 81. Research shows that the majority of the electorate does not see him as mentally and physically fit to hold a new term, although Trump is only four years younger.
Thus, the task for the current president is to convince those dissatisfied with the coalition that elected him in 2020 – especially young people, blacks and Latinos – to show up at the polls again. In the case of Trump, who has a highly engaged but minority base, the challenge is to expand support to those who sympathize with him but do not usually vote.
FIRST OF ALL, THE ECONOMY
Biden’s biggest problem is the economy. Although the unemployment rate has been below 4% for 27 months and income has grown above inflation, the price spike during his term has accumulated an increase of 19.4%.
In a country little accustomed to the problem, the memory of paying much less for the same things four years ago favors Trump. A survey commissioned by the New York Times in early April shows that 64% approve of the businessman’s performance in the economy, while 63% disapprove of Biden’s. A new vigorous spike in inflation until November is the biggest fear of the Democratic campaign.
This issue is especially sensitive precisely for the voters that the Democrat needs most. A survey carried out by the Harvard Institute of Politics shows that the biggest concern among young people is the rise in prices and, among black people, housing – access to real estate credit has become even more difficult with the increase in interest rates set in motion to contain inflationary pressure.
For Latinos, the biggest problem is gun violence – another front explored by Trump and on which Biden has little to present -, but housing, health and inflation are close behind.
In the view of Democratic strategist Max Burns, the campaign needs to emphasize less data and numbers and have the president speak to communities, emphasizing his achievements in a more humane way.
“Where Biden has always done best is telling stories, showing how this is affecting you, how you’re making more money, how now you can afford things you couldn’t before. I mean, the reality is if you didn’t have a job during the Trump administration, it is very likely that there will be one now under the Biden administration”, he tells Folha.
VOTING AND ABSTENTION OF YOUNG, WHITE PEOPLE WITHOUT A DIPLOMA AND LATINOS ARE CENTRAL
In 2020, Biden won among voters up to 29 years old with 61% of the vote. This year, if the participation of this group drops ten percentage points and the vote in a third way – the independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., for example – grows four points, Trump would guarantee victory in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin and, thus, he would be elected, shows a simulation on the FiveThirtyEight website.
“We see Republicans and Democrats fighting over things like student debt, the war in Gaza, these campus protests, when in fact these issues are among the least important to young people,” Burns says.
“Young people care about affordable housing, gun violence, inflation and being able to afford basic needs. And those aren’t really issues that any party is talking to them about, because they’re focused on these culture war issues,” he says. .
One of these battles takes place on an unusual front: the pop kingdom of Taylor Swift. On the one hand, Trumpists create conspiracy theories involving the singer and the White House, aware that her support for the businessman is impossible; on the other, Democrats are fighting for a public endorsement of the star.
For analysts, however, Swift’s power lies less in defining the vote, but rather in encouraging people to go to the polls. Last year, the singer managed to increase the number of new voter registrations by 35 thousand in a single day, after making a post about the topic on her Instagram. The number is 23% higher than that recorded on the same day in 2022 and more than double among 18-year-old voters.
Trump, in turn, could benefit from an increase in voter turnout among white people without college degrees. If he expands his advantage in this segment by just two percentage points, Biden will be defeated. However, if the margin of support remains the same, but the participation of voters without a degree drops by five points and of white voters, another five, the Democrat would carry North Carolina and be re-elected.
The divergence is greater in relation to the behavioral expectations of the Latino electorate, which is the fastest growing in the country. Since 2020, the group has grown by nearly 4 million potential votes, or 12%, according to the Pew Research Center. In swing states, the weight is greatest in Arizona and Nevada, where they make up about a quarter of the electorate.
In 2020, Biden won the Latino vote by a margin of eight points, but this year, the advantage in swing state voters is just four points, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey from April.
There are several hypotheses for change, from the most pragmatic, such as inflation, to the most ideological, such as a more conservative trend within this group. For Burns, however, the picture is more complex.
“Among Latinos, 76% support a federal law protecting the right to abortion. But they are also very pro-criminal justice, they want a stronger police force. These voters defy stereotypes, they will not fit easily into any category. Both Parties will have to work to win them over, think about the nuances of what they are saying and proposing”, he states.
PLEBISCITES IN THE STATES AND THE “REVERSE RIDE”
In an election full of singularities – the first in more than a century between an incumbent and a former president, fought between the oldest candidates in history, and with the most unpopular names since opinion polls existed – another rare phenomenon could happen: the “reverse ride”.
In normal times, the presidential race, which mobilizes national attention, usually influences the other votes that take place along with it, which “piggyback” on this engagement. In other words, a voter would go to the polls to vote for Trump and, in addition, end up voting for Republicans for state government and Congress, and for positions defended by the party in plebiscites.
But, this year, with the high mobilization around the right to abortion, Democrats believe that this time Biden can take advantage of this vote. The reasoning is based on the 2022 mid-term election, in which the party actually favored the issue. So far, plebiscites on abortion have been confirmed in three states: Florida, Maryland and New York. Of these, only the first gives Democrats any hope, but it is small.
Ten other states are still considering including the issue on the ballot in November, including Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
A precedent for this effect pointed out by analysts is the election of George W. Bush in 2004, when Republicans took advantage of the opposition in several states to same-sex marriage to boost their candidate in parallel with plebiscites on the issue.
(FERNANDA PERRIN | FOLHAPRESS)
Tags: Uncertainty marks Biden Trumps dispute months election
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