The basic interest rate (Selic rate) is expected to be cut by 0.25 percentage points, to 10.50% per year, in the next decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank, scheduled for this Wednesday (8 ). This is what 25 multimarket fund managers consulted in the Copom expectations survey carried out by XP expect. In the projection for the Selic rate at the end of 2024, managers have revised their positions since the last report in March. From an estimate of 9.0%, the upward revision now points to a Selic at 9.75% per year after the last committee meeting in December – an estimate slightly higher than the revision made by the market, published in this Monday’s Focus Bulletin (6). In general, the research indicates that there has been a deterioration in the positive outlook regarding Brazil’s economy this year. “We are seeing a reduction in risk appetite, meaning there has been a drop in positive outlooks and a considerable increase in neutral positioning,” says the report.
However, expectations regarding the end of inflation for the year remained the same, at 3.70%, and the estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased from 1.80% in March to 2.10% in May, a high considered “marginal” in the report.
Global shares are the new bets for multimarket fund managers, to the detriment of positions in Brazilian shares. The movement takes place despite the volatility observed on Wall Street, amid uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates in the US.
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“In the local market, optimism has reduced considerably, currently 53% of managers are constructive, compared to the figure of 88% observed in March, and 71% observed in January”, says the report.
