The former president Jair Bolsonaro appears numerically in front of the president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silvaalthough within the margin of error, in a possible electoral dispute for the Presidency of the Republic, according to a survey carried out by the Paraná Pesquisas institute between March 18th and 22nd, at the request of the Progressistas party (PP).
According to the survey, in the main scenario, Bolsonaro would have 37.1% of voting intentions, against 35.3% for Lula — as the margin of error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, they are technically tied.
In this scenario, the former minister Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 7.5%; the minister Simone Tebet (MDB), with 6.1%; and the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSDB), with 1.8%. Among those interviewed, 8% said they would vote blank, null or none and 4.2% did not know or did not want to answer.
Ineligible
Bolsonaro, at this moment, could not contest a presidential election against Lula because he was declared ineligible by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) in actions that found abuse of political power in two episodes: the use of Palácio do Alvorada to attack the Brazilian electoral system during a meeting with ambassadors and the electoral exploitation of the official events of the Bicentenary of Independence, both in 2022 .
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The former president is trying to get back into the running through appeals presented to the Federal Supreme Court, which have not yet been evaluated. Bolsonaro’s allies also raise the possibility of voting in Congress for some type of amnesty, not only for Bolsonaro, but for his supporters who were convicted of the coup acts on January 8th.
Evangelicals
Bolsonaro would defeat Lula outside the margin of error in some segments of the electorate, such as men (42.8% to 33.3%), voters aged 25 to 34 (40.2% to 33.8%), aged 35 to 44 years old (40% to 32.3%) and 45 to 59 years old (40.6% to 31.6%) and Brazilians who have secondary education (41.9% to 32.3%) or higher education (37 .4% to 31.7%).
Bolsonaro’s biggest advantage over the PT member, however, comes in what has consolidated itself as his main electoral base: the evangelicals. In this segment, the former president would have 50% of voting intentions, against just 27.3% for Lula.
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Between the Catholics, the situation is reversed, but with a smaller advantage: Lula would have 38.6%, against Bolsonaro’s 32.5%. The PT member also opens a good distance between voters who have up to primary education (41.3% to 31.2%), those over 60 years old (42% to 31.9%), young people aged 16 to 24 (38.8% to 29.5%) and women (37.1% to 32%).
In performance by regions, Bolsonaro would beat Lula in the South (45.2% to 28.4%), in the Southeast (40.2% to 31.3%) and in the North/Central-West (38.1% to 30. 5%). The PT member would beat the former president in the Northeast, where he has 47.7% of voting intentions, against 27.6% of his predecessor
Second round
In a scenario with just Bolsonaro and Lula, as it would be in a possible second round, the former president continues numerically ahead, but by almost no difference: he has 41.7% of voting intentions, against 41.6% of the PT member. Among those interviewed in this scenario, 11.4% said they would vote blank, null or none and 5.3% did not know or did not want to answer.
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The survey interviewed 2,024 voters in 162 municipalities in 26 states and the Federal District. The first numbers were released by senator Ciro Nogueira, national president of the PP, the party that commissioned the research.
