Ipespe/XP poll released this Friday (23.Sep.2022) shows former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with 46% of voting intentions, leading the electoral race. President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is in 2nd position, with 35%.
Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB) come next, with 7% and 4%, respectively, technically tied within the margin of error, which is 2.2 percentage points more or less.
Here are the percentages recorded by all candidates in the survey:
The blanks and nulls add up to 5%, while those who do not know or have not responded, 2%.
In the last Ipespe/XP survey, released on August 31, the PT candidate scored 43% X 35% of the chief executive. The former governor of Ceará appeared with 9% and the senator, with 5%.
In an eventual 2nd round between Lula and Bolsonaro, the former president would win by 54% to 37%. Whites and nulls and those who do not know or did not know how to answer add up to 9%.
The Ipespe researchers surveyed 2,000 voters from September 19 to 21. The confidence interval is 95.5%. The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number BR-08425/2022. It cost R$84,000.00 and was paid by XP Investimentos, according to Electoral Justice data. Here is the full text (4 MB).
Search PowerDate held from September 18 to 20, 2022 showed that Lula has an advantage of 7 percentage points over Bolsonaro in the 1st round. The PT has 44%, while the president has 37%.
Cyrus has 7%. Technically ties with Tebet (4%) by a margin of error of 2 percentage points. Felipe d’Ávila and Soraya Thronicke have 1% each. The other candidates did not have enough mentions to score.
The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power 360 Journalism, with its own resources. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. Data were collected through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,500 interviews in 301 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-00407/2022. Read about the methodology.
O PowerDate also tested the names of Lula and Bolsonaro in a scenario of direct confrontation in the 2nd round. Learn more here.
DIFFERENCES IN SURVEYS
This presidential election is proving challenging for companies doing research. There are many results indicating divergent signals. It was difficult to know what the real trend is at this moment.
It is important to say that all the surveys are correct, each one within the methodology chosen. Each system can have advantages and disadvantages, depending on the situation they want to determine.
In 2018, for example, there was much “embarrassed vote” in Jair Bolsonaro. Some face-to-face surveys had difficulty capturing this type of preference. The telephone polls, on the other hand, gave more comfort to part of the voters who opted for the then presidential candidate for the PSL (today, Bolsonaro is in the PL).
It is still unclear what impact each methodology has on data collection. But it is already known that in-person polls tend to have a result pointing to a looser leadership of Lula. And telephone surveys (especially automated and neutral ones, with a recording asking the questions, like the PowerDate) tend to show a tighter contest.
In the United States, face-to-face polling has not been used for decades to measure voting intentions at the national level. The extreme polarized environment hinders data collection when the interviewer and the interviewee are face to face.
In short, it is important to note that it is not a question of there being an error in one or another research. They are different methodologies. At the end of this campaign it will be possible to know which system was most appropriate to point out trends in the current Brazilian political moment.
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Research Aggregator clicking here.
The research information began to be compiled by journalist Fernando Rodrigues, Editor-in-Chief of the Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.