Report published in 2015 pointed to an increase in rain in Rio Grande do Sul and talks about drought here in the State
A broad study commissioned by the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs of the Presidency of the Republic, released in 2015, already pointed to a significant increase in the volume of rainfall in the southern region of Brazil. But it also showed how the Mato Grosso do Sul region could be seriously affected by rising temperatures in the coming decades.
The project called “BRAZIL 2040” commissioned national institutions of excellence to perform simulations based on global climate models, which relatively clearly predicted the possibility of heavy rains in Rio Grande do Sul, a state that is experiencing one of the greatest humanitarian tragedies in its history. , precisely due to flooding caused by incessant rains.
This simulation was called the “ETA” model, which points out how climate warming, called the “temperature anomaly” in the study and also precipitation, may behave in the interval from 2010 to 2099. This period of almost 90 years is divided into three: period “a” from 2010 to 2040, period “b” from 2041 to 2070 and period “c” from 2071 to 2099.
And the news is not good. For the three periods, the simulations show precisely the Central-West as the region with the greatest increase in temperature, with an estimated warming of 2.5 °C in the first period, 4.5 °C in the second period and 6 in the third. °C, in other words, the study points to an acceleration in warming in the Central-West region, as shown in the map below.
Increase in the volume of rain
Proportional to the increase in temperature is the increase in rainfall in the South region and the reduction in rainfall in the Central-West region. In the case of rain, the model was also divided into three, and at the same interval. For the three periods, the simulations show the extreme south of Brazil with “positive anomalies” (more rain) and the other regions of the country with negative anomalies (less rain), as also shown in the map below.
Agriculture in MS will have to adapt
The study also brings suggestions for adaptations that the Brazilian agricultural sector will have to undergo. Analysis shows that there may be a reduction, not only in production, but in production areas.
In Mato Grosso do Sul, specifically, soybean cultivation will undergo greater adaptation. It will need to “promote the implementation of existing technologies and develop and/or adapt technologies for soil and water conservation in the production system to avoid losses due to more frequent events of intense rain, especially technologies that allow the reduction of evaporation, greater infiltration of water from the soil, maximize the use and storage of water, adoption of efficient irrigation systems”.
Current monitoring
But it is not necessary to rely solely on the “BRAZIL 2040” survey to see how Mato Grosso do Sul, unlike Rio Grande do Sul, has drought as its main problem and not rain.
Cemaden (National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerts) maintains a monthly drought and impact monitoring report in Brazil. The last one released, from April, brings alerts for Mato Grosso do Sul.
“The Integrated Drought Index (IIS3) forecast for the month of May indicates that the drought situation may intensify, especially in the north of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, south of Pará and in the interior of São Paulo. This may be due to the below-average rainfall recorded in recent months, associated with the forecast rainfall below expectations in these regions for the month of May”, points out the report.
Check out the pages in the study below that indicate an increase in temperature in Mato Grosso do Sul:
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