April 13th went down in history. Everything changed there. Until that moment, Iran and Israel were experiencing a kind of “cold war”, or a “proxy conflict”. Previously, Tehran used its proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis) to “outsource” their offensives against Tel Aviv. However, the thirteenth day of April marked the beginning of a direct conflict. For both the conscious analyst and the attentive citizen, the change represented an unprecedented escalation. It is as if the indirect conflict between Moscow and the USA (with Ukraine as proxy) evolved into a direct attack by Putin on Washington. In other words, something really worrying.
The world was afraid that the news could bring what everyone feared: a all out war, that is, a “total war” between the two regional powers, which could easily escalate into a world war. However, some analysts noticed that one of the developments of the unprecedented offensive against Israel ended up helping not only Benjamin Netanyahu, but also President Biden.
Netanyahu was able to practically save his government and his political career. After the Iranian attack, the US and some European countries would decide to send enormous financial and military aid to Israel.
Let’s start with Netanyahu. I don’t know if you knew, but the Israeli Prime Minister was facing some very complicated problems. First: fierce internal opposition against his management, with crowds in the streets demanding his resignation. Second: heavy criticism from international public opinion regarding his plan to launch an offensive against southern Gaza, completing the mission of completely eliminating Hamas. Third: the difficulty of receiving new financial and military aid from the USA, since the President of the Chamber, Mike Johnson, was blocking this aid.
Now, do you believe that he managed to resolve all of this after the Iranian offensive? Netanyahu was able to practically save his government and his political career. After the Iranian attack, the US and some European countries would decide to send enormous financial and military aid to Israel. Bibi also gained justification for starting his new offensive against Rafah, in southern Gaza, and also greater acceptance for attacks on targets in Syria and Lebanon.
Some might imagine that, in the end, we would be facing a “miscalculation” on the part of Iranian strategists. I already suspect that they knew full well that this would be the result. However, the most curious thing is that Iran also ended up giving Biden two big gifts. First, the American president got the long-sought approval from the American Congress to provide aid and weapons not only to Israel, but also to Ukraine and Taiwan. Furthermore, with the volatility arising from the attack, Biden has now gained more acceptance for withdrawing oil from the strategic reserve, which is a fuel storage for emergency use maintained by the United States Department of Energy. With this, he will have a powerful tool against one of the biggest obstacles to his re-election: the increase in fuel prices.
Conclusion: It is very strange to think that Iran would not have anticipated this outcome. Didn’t they know that the attack would actually end up helping their enemies? Although, when we remember that Biden offered 6 billion dollars to the Iranians in exchange for the release of five Americans who were imprisoned in the country, we see that the supposed enemies sometimes end up helping each other.
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