“More removed from reality and with the praetorian guard attentive.” Six more years of Putin are coming with two big challenges

Undisputed, the Russian leader is preparing to take office for another six years of leadership. What is certain is that Vladimir Putin governs with less opposition than ever

With increasingly consolidated power, Vladimir Putin is preparing to carry out one of the most important rituals in Russian politics this Tuesday. In a meticulously choreographed act, Vladimir Putin will climb the steps of the Kremlin until entering Saint Andrew’s Hall, where, surrounded by the main figures of the Russian regime, he will take the stage to place his right hand on the constitution and recite the presidential oath. For experts, these next six years will show a Putin increasingly concerned about his own security.

“We are going to have a dictator who is increasingly removed from reality. A dictator increasingly closed in on his inner circle. A dictator who will need to have a praetorian guard constantly attentive. A dictator who will invest enormously in his protection and, therefore, we will see a huge investment in the secret services”, says professor José Filipe Pinto, specialist in International Relations.

Since becoming Russian president for the first time on the last day of 1999, Vladimir Putin has shaped Russia in his image. A former Soviet secret service man, the newly appointed Russian president tried to bring order to the newly formed Russian Federation, which was plunged into the chaos that resulted from the collapse of the Soviet Union. He crushed opposition, created mechanisms to limit free press, and promoted Russian nationalism and the Orthodox church.

But now Vladimir Putin manages a country that has completely plunged into a war of territorial conquest in Ukraine and has been the target of the harshest economic sanctions on record. Around 40% of the Russian state budget is for military spending, a figure that shows that Moscow is preparing for a long war.

“The most authoritarian regimes are the most powerful until the day they stop being so. Six years is a long time and the world changes very quickly, but one of Putin’s main challenges will be to maintain dissatisfied public opinion in a war economy that translates into a loss of quality of life”, insists Diana Soller.

The war in Ukraine, which is entering its third year, shows no sign of respite. Casualty numbers are not public, but for both sides, losses are high. But this does not stop Vladimir Putin’s ambitions, who this year once again promised to continue the war until he achieved “all his objectives”, which include the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine.

But on the other side, the will to defend the territory remains intact, with Ukraine approving a new law on mobilizing soldiers and the United States approving a new military aid package worth 61 billion dollars. Although analysts do not consider continued US support over the years to be a guarantee, this approval means that the end of the conflict will not come this year and this will be a challenge for Putin.

“We don’t know if the war will end in six years or if it will end within this mandate. A war is always a huge challenge for any leader in this context. It is a giant challenge for Vladimir Putin”, insists Diana Soller.

The war in Ukraine allowed Putin to consolidate the creation of “external threats against mother Russia”. José Filipe Pinto explains that the Kremlin’s propaganda machine managed to portray the West as the invader, despite Russia invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Despite everything, the country has shown itself to be quite resilient against these restrictions. The Russian economy grew by 3.6% in 2023 and is expected to grow again by 3% in 2024. Despite all the restrictions imposed by the West, the Kremlin knew how to redirect Russian economic potential and its supply chains to third countries, as well as creating innovative ways to evade sanctions.

But Moscow’s real oxygen balloon resides in Beijing. Xi Jinping’s regime, which signed an “unlimited partnership” agreement with Russia days before the invasion of Ukraine, has taken advantage of the circumstances to buy oil and gas from Russia at very competitive prices. While China took the opportunity to “fill” the void created by the exit of Western companies from the Russian market.

“Putin is not taking any risks internally. But at an external level there are two: the change in position of the United States of America and the change in position of China”, says José Filipe Pinto, who does not rule out the possibility of the Americans deciding to send military personnel to Russia.

The current geopolitical scenario has made Russia “dependent” on China to continue conducting a high-intensity war and not destroy its economy in the process. However, for José Filipe Pinto, the Chinese leadership is pragmatic and its position is flexible. At this moment, Xi Jinping looks at Moscow as “an ally to combat North American hegemony” and, therefore, is willing to support it. But if circumstances change and Beijing sees that this relationship harms its economic interests, then China may even change its foreign policy.

There is another part of the planet that could pose new challenges to Russian strategy over the next six years. In the capital of Georgia, thousands of people protest daily against the country’s government, which approved a bill that forces all non-governmental organizations and media that receive more than 20% of external funding to register as “foreign agents ”.

The reaction of the Georgian people was felt. In the last two weeks, clashes with the authorities have intensified and clashes with the police have already left dozens of people injured, including the leader of the main opposition party. The specter of the Ukrainian Maidan revolution, which led to the fall of the pro-Russian government, hangs in the air, and many fear that Russia could intervene again, as it did in 2008.

“The challenge that is being posed to Russia by Georgia. It could be a thorn, but it could also be a little more. People are challenging Russian power in the Georgian government. Let’s see if Moscow will want to intervene to calm things down like it did in Ukraine”, explains Diana Soller.

But domestically, repression will increase. The changes that Vladimir Putin himself introduced to the constitution in 2020 allow Putin to directly interfere in justice, removing federal judges and supreme judges. Furthermore, changes to the document allow the Russian president to remain in power until 2036, by which time he would be 84 years old.

“This is a one-man regime. This is Vladimir Putin’s regime, with its own signature and ideology, Putin’s succession will be very complicated. It will be a succession by decree. The choice of this successor has not yet begun”, guarantees the expert.

For José Filipe Pinto, the path traced by Vladimir Putin over the next six years will become increasingly violent, with the Russian State becoming increasingly securitarian. To this end, the Russian president will justify his positions as being necessary to face “a decadent West” that moves away from traditional Russian values. But, without any member of his team capable of standing up to him, Putin will continue to have the health to do so.

“The outcome of the war in Ukraine never calls into question the image of Vladimir Putin. Putin will never emerge as a loser from the war in Ukraine, but he is unlikely to emerge as a winner either. peace, which will come one day, will not be peace, it will be an armistice. The only limitation on Putin’s future would always be health. This entourage will allow him to remain on the throne ad eternum. Putin can govern ad eternum”, emphasizes José Filipe Pinto.