Latest USDA numbers, weather in the USA, lower-than-expected American shipments and strong dollar against the real in focus
The soybean market turned around and is operating in the red on the Chicago Stock Exchange this Monday afternoon (1). Around 1:50 pm (Brasília time), oilseed futures lost 4.75 to 6.25 points, with May worth US$ 11.85 and August, US$ 11.98 per bushel. It wasn’t just soybeans in grain, such as bran – with losses of more than 1.5% -, corn – with a drop of almost 2% – and wheat.
“The market reacts to a stronger dollar and last week’s USDA data,” says the Agrinvest Commodities team.
The CBOT market is still finishing digesting the latest numbers from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) on planting intentions for the 2024/25 North American harvest – indicating an increase of 3% in relation to the previous harvest – and the the country’s quarterly inventories, which came in above market expectations.
Read more:
+ USDA: Quarterly US soybean and wheat stocks above expectations
+ USDA indicates 3% increase in US soybean area 24/25, but lower number than Outlook Forum
Furthermore, this Monday, the market also received the weekly shipment figures also reported by the USDA, which came in below expectations in the case of soybeans and put pressure on prices. Weekly shipments were 414,484 thousand tons, however, the expected range was 500 thousand to 900 thousand. With this volume, the total number of soybeans shipped by the USA in the entire commercial year reaches 36,981,053 million tons, 19% less than a year ago.
“In addition, some other factors put pressure on prices, such as the rise in the dollar, an eye on the macroeconomics and risk aversion. This is not a good time for the USA, but when we talk about Brazil, we could expect an appreciation in premiums for prices to adjust to this drop in Chicago”, says market analyst Marta Guimarães, from Royal Rural.
Little by little, the market’s attention is also beginning to focus more on the climatic conditions in the United States, as field work there has begun and the first harvest monitoring report arrives this Monday, also by the USDA. The first numbers will be more focused on corn, since the planting of the cereal begins earlier in the country.
In Brazil, pay attention to the rising dollar, reaching R$5.06 at the beginning of the week, with a gain of 0.9%.
Tags: Soybeans Prices fall Chicago Monday losses bran corn wheat
