Analysts’ projection for 2024 inflation fell during the week while the estimate for the evolution of GDP in the year maintained the six-week upward trend, according to data released this Tuesday (26) by the Central Bank’s Focus Report. The survey, which is normally released on Mondays, has been postponed due to strikes by BC employees.
Inflation
The IPCA estimate for this year went from 3.79% to 3.75% in the week, while the forecast for 2025 inflation fell from 3.52% to 3.51%. The projection for 2026 remains at 3.50%, a level equal to that of the last 38 Focus bulletins, the same rate of variation expected for inflation in 2027.
GDP
For gross domestic product (GDP), the median projections for 2024 went from an expansion of 1.80% to 1.85%. The projection for 2025 remained at 2.0% for the 15th week in a row and that for 2026 has been at 2.0% for 33 weeks in a row. The estimate is also at 2.0% for 2027, 35 weeks ago.
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Selic
For projections for the basic interest rate (Selic), the Focus Bulletin has maintained estimates across the entire research horizon for several weeks. The estimate for 2024, for example, remained at 9.00%, a stable level for 13 weeks, according to analysts.
The forecast for 2025 has remained at 8.50% for 16 weeks in a row, while the projection for 2026 has remained at the same 8.50% for 34 weeks in a row. The expected rate for 2027 has also been at 8.50% for 33 weeks.
The median projections for the dollar in 2024 remained at R$4.95, while that for 2025 remained at the same R$5.00 and that for 2026 fell from R$5.04 to R$5.03. For 2027, there was a reduction, from R$5.10 to R$5.07.
