Soybean futures contracts traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed this Tuesday (7) with mixed prices.
After reaching the highest level in three months, the market showed a decline, with some investors taking profits. However, the correction was prompted by concerns about flooding in Rio Grande do Sul and the damage to crops in that state.
The market is also trying to position itself in light of Friday’s report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The body should indicate harvest and final stocks in the United States in 2024/25 above the previous season. These will be the first projections for the current season.
Analysts consulted by international agencies are betting on American stocks of 432 million bushels in 2024/25. For 2023/24, the market is betting on a number of 341 million bushels. In April, the forecast was 340 million bushels.
For production, the market expects a number of 4.43 billion bushels for 2024/25. The USDA number for 2023/24 is 4.165 billion bushels.
Futures contracts
Soybean grain contracts for delivery in July closed down 2.25 cents, or 0.18%, $12.46 1/2 per bushel. The August position had a quote of $12.45 1/2 per bushel, with a loss of 0.50 cents or 0.04%. The remaining positions rose.
In by-products, the July bran position closed with a drop of US$4.40 or 1.13% at US$383.20 per ton. In oil, contracts expiring in July closed at 44.50 cents on the dollar, an increase of 0.66 cent or 1.50%.
Soy supply and demand
In relation to the global supply and demand picture for soybeans, the market is betting on 2024/25 final stocks of 120 million tons. For 2023/24, the market expectation is for a number of 112.4 million, against 114.2 million estimated in April.
For the Brazilian harvest in 2023/24, the bet is on cutting, going from the current 155 million to 152.6 million tons. Argentine production must be reduced from 50 million to 49.5
millions of tons.
