After a shorter week due to the Labor Day holiday, the highlight of the next few days will be the decision by the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) on the basic interest rate (Selic). A few weeks ago, the market was already pricing in a reduction of 0.5 percentage points for the rate. The hypothesis, however, was put to the test after signals from Roberto Campos Neto, president of the Central Bank, of a possible reduction in the pace of cuts and a decrease of 0.25 pp in May. Projections of a terminal Selic of less than 10% at the end of 2024 are still awaiting confirmation in the statement that will accompany the decision
On Monday, the highlight is the composite PMI released by Markit, with data from April. The Central Bank will also release the Focus report and the March press release on fiscal policy. The following day, the Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) presents the April trade balance.
On Wednesday, before the Copom announces the expected monetary policy decision, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) presents the Monthly Trade Survey. Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) will release the General Price Index (IGP-DI) for April, with Bradesco forecasting a 0.77% increase in the monthly comparison and the Weekly Consumer Price Index (IPC-S). In addition to the new Selic rate, the Central Bank will also present the weekly exchange rate flow and the Brazil Commodity Index for April. The National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea) brings vehicle production and sales figures for April.
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The following day, IBGE presents the regional Monthly Industrial Survey, with data from March and, on Friday, the institute brings the Civil Construction costs and indices for April, and the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA). The Economic Research Institute Foundation (FIPE) publishes its weekly Consumer Price Index (IPC) and FGV brings the first preview of the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M) for May.
In the political field, Provisional Measure 1202, which limits the use of tax credits, must be taken to a vote in the Chamber of Deputies. Furthermore, the regulation of VAT (Value Added Tax) should continue to be discussed.
Results season
Check out this week’s announcements:
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May 6th
ALLIED
CBA
ITAU UNIBANCO
NEOGRID
PAY LESS
TEGMA
VIVARA SA
CCR SA
BLAU
TIM
GUARARAPES
LET’S GO
May 7th
EMBRAER
PINE
AUREN
CARREFOUR BR
CURY S/A
ENGIE BRAZIL
ETERNIT
FRAS-LE
MATER DEI
GPA
ODONTOPREV
PETRORIO
RAIADROGASIL
TELEFONICA BRAZIL
VULCABRAS
WILSON SONS
May 8
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3TENTOS
AREZZO CO
3R PETROLEUM
BANK OF BRAZIL
BRASKEM
CASAS BAHIA
COGNA ON
COPEL
CSU DIGITAL
D1000VFARMA
DESKTOP
DEXCO
ELETROBRAS
ENERGY
STAPAR
MATEUS GROUP
SOMA GROUP
IOCHP-MAXION
LAVVI
LOGIN
RENNER STORES
MERCANTIL
LIGHT METAL
MILLS
MINERVA
MRV
HEY
PADTEC
PROFARMA
QUALICORP
RANDON PART
SANTOS BRAZIL
SAO CARLOS
SLC AGRICOLA
TAESA
TENT
TOTVS
OVERVIEW
VALID
VIBRA
WDC NETWORKS
RNI
LOPES BRAZIL
PETRORECONCAVO
May 9
VIVEO
WIZ CO
WEAR
ALLOS
TIME FOR FUN
PLAN AND PLAN
PRINER
SABESP
SANEPAR
SMART FIT
SUZANO SA
SYN PROP TEC
TC
TECNISA
TRISUL
CSN
CSNMINERACATION
CEA MODAS
DIRECTIONAL
ABC BRAZIL
ALPARGATAS
ARMAC
B3
BEMOBI TECH
GOOD HARVEST
SAFE BOX
CPFL ENERGIA
EDU CRUISE
CYRELA REALT
DEXXOS PAR
DIMED – PANVEL
ECORODOVIAS
ESPACOLASER
FERBASA
FLEURY
GAFISA
GPS
GRENDENE
HAPVIDA
HBR REALTY
WATERWAYS
INFRACOMM
JHSF PART
LOCAWEB
MAGAZ LUIZA
MELIUZ
MITER REALTY
MOBLY
MOURA DUBEUX
NEXPE
OUROFINO S/A
PETZ
RUMO SA
RENT
CVC BRAZIL
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May 10th
PAN BANK
YDUQS PART
MAESTROLOC
PARANAPANEMA
PDG REALT
BE EDUCATIONAL
IGUA SA
M.DIASBRANCO
China’s economic data is highlighted
In the USA, after a week of strong announcements closed by labor market data (Payroll), the next few days will be calmer. The main data of the week will be the monthly fiscal result presented by the Treasury and the University of Michigan confidence index (from May), estimated by the LSEG consensus at 77. The Federal Reserve will also present consumer credit for March, on Tuesday .
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Abroad, data from China will be the highlight of the week. The Asian country will present the figures for new loans, aggregate credit and the trade balance for April in the coming days, although the release date does not yet exist. On Friday, consumer and producer price indices will be presented with data from April.
Germany and the eurozone will bring the Markit composite PMI for April on Monday, when the bloc also releases the producer price index. The following day, the Euro Area brings its retail sales figures. On Wednesday, Germany presents industrial production, with LSEG expectations of a 3.6% decline, and, on Thursday, the United Kingdom announces its interest rate decision. The following day, the British country presents its preliminary GDP for the 1st quarter.
