Civil Defense of Santa Catarina releases climate forecast for the next three months

Government of Santa Catarina/Disclosure

Civil Defense of Santa Catarina releases climate forecast for the next three months

Rainfall decreases in autumn and early winter

In the quarters of April, May and June, which represents the majority of autumn and the beginning of winter, rainfall decreases in much of Santa Catarina compared to previous months. In April, volumes between 125 millimeters (mm) and 150 mm are expected in the western portion, while in other areas the values are close to or below 100 mm.

In May, as winter approaches, cold fronts become more frequent and rainfall increases slightly in the Grande Oeste, Planalto Sul and Litoral Sul, remaining between 125 mm and 200 mm, but remains close to 100 mm in other areas of State. In June there are no changes in most parts of Santa Catarina, however the accumulated precipitation falls again in the coastal areas from Greater Florianópolis to the South Coast, with values close to or below 100 mm.

As for temperatures, in the months of April and May, they still respond to the autumn pattern, generally presenting large temperature variations. In June, the entry of cold air masses becomes more frequent and ends up keeping temperatures at lower thresholds, thus characterizing the beginning of winter.

Forecast

In the next quarter, the El Niño phenomenon is heading towards neutrality. Despite this, the atmosphere takes time to respond to the weakening of the phenomenon, that is, rains within or above average are still expected, especially in the coastal areas in the months of April and May. With the cooling trend, the La Niña phenomenon should be characterized during the winter, in the quarters of June, July and August.

Warmer than average temperatures are expected for the quarter. Even if the advance of colder air masses towards Santa Catarina is observed, these systems are not expected to last and, on the other hand, there is the possibility of consecutive warmer days, popularly known as summers. It is worth noting that despite temperatures above average for the season, they should still be below summer temperatures, with slightly cooler mornings and mild afternoons.

Recommendations for at-risk populations

Flooding and flash floods: do not come into contact with water and do not drive through flooded areas, do not travel on submerged bridges and jetties. Take extra care with children near rivers or streams;
Thunderstorms: seek a sheltered location, away from trees, signs or other objects that could be thrown. On the beach, never stay in the water;
Landslides: pay attention to cracks in walls and slopes, tilting of posts, trees and walls, in addition to observing whether there is water spilling from the ground;
Hot days: Drink water regularly, keep environments at a pleasant temperature, especially for elderly people, the sick, and pets.
Reduce direct exposure to the sun and avoid exercising during peak heat hours (between 10am and 4pm);
The State Secretariat for Protection and Civil Defense of Santa Catarina reiterates the need to monitor weather forecast warnings and bulletins daily due to constant updates to meteorological models.

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