BRAZIL – Flooding on the Amazon River in 2024 will be within normal limits, with less rainfall, decrees Brazilian Geological Service

The Brazilian Geological Survey (SGB) released this Tuesday (2) important information about the flood situation on the Amazon River. According to the agency, the forecast for this year is that floods will remain within normal limits, with a lower volume of rain compared to the previous year, which was marked by a severe drought in the region.

The forecasts presented by the SGB include estimates for the maximum levels of the Negro, Solimões and Amazonas rivers in 2024, 75 days in advance of the peak of the flood. According to the agency, these forecasts are 80% reliable.

The director of Hydrology and Territorial Management at SGB, Alice Castilho, highlighted the damage caused by last year’s severe drought, which impacted navigation, the productive sector and the region’s aquatic biota. The Amazonas Alert, carried out since 1989 by the SGB, is an important tool for monitoring and anticipating the impacts of floods in the region, especially in the municipalities of Manaus, Manacapuru, Itacoatiara and Parintins.

Forecasts for 2024 indicate that the flood will not be of great magnitude, with the peak expected in June. In Manaus, the estimate is that the Rio Negro will reach levels close to historical averages, remaining above the alert level, but below the flood level. The same pattern is observed in forecasts for the Solimões and Amazon rivers in other affected regions.

According to experts, water scarcity in the region last year was influenced by the El Niño phenomenon and the increase in surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These external events altered the circulation pattern of the atmosphere in the Amazon, drastically reducing precipitation volumes.

For the future, the expectation is that El Niño will give a respite, but there are concerns regarding the warming of the North Atlantic Ocean and the possibility of the La Niña phenomenon, which could increase rainfall over the Amazon. Meteorologists from the Amazon Protection System Operational Management Center predict a scenario of below-normal rainfall in the southern half of the region, while areas such as the Eastern Amazon may receive above-average rainfall.

In summary, forecasts for flooding on the Amazon River this year point to a normal situation, with a lower volume of rain compared to previous years. Anticipating this information is essential to help competent bodies take the necessary measures to minimize impacts on populations living along river banks in the Amazon region.