“Taking into account economic and climate factors, we expect a 15% contraction at the end of 2024. But the sample from January to February is already higher. If it continues like this, it will be difficult for us to achieve a recovery in the second half of the year, which tends to be better,” he said.
Recently, factories in John Deere and AGCO announced collective vacations and layoffs at plants in Rio Grande do Sul. Bastos attributes this to the scenario of lower sales.
“The situation in the South is the same as throughout Brazil: soybeans and corn represent 60% of the market and commodity prices have fallen a lot, which affects farmer profitability. Furthermore, high interest rates discourage investments, just as the expectation of a fall makes customers wait to buy later. This was all made worse by the drought, especially in the Central-West, which is a large market”, he contextualized.
The director does not believe that factory shutdowns could affect the supply of machines on the market. “For tractors, there are estimates that stocks are sufficient for between four and six months,” he said.
He highlights that the current situation is bad, but that the sector is well structured. “We are not living in a good time, but it is a problem limited to this year. In the long term, we expect greater grain exports from Brazil, we are well situated”, Bastos reiterated the impact of lower commodity prices, a result of excess supply, and said that “only time passing and stocks decreasing” for that profitability returns to the producer.
Tags: Agricultural machinery sector drops year projection revised Abimaq
