Mexico lives in the shadow of militarization 1 month before the election – 05/01/2024 – World

Gaby Goros is 25 years old and for the second time is trying to be elected federal deputy for the state of Morelos, south of Mexico City. Politics and, in a way, violence made her mature: the candidate has just had an uncle murdered during the campaign.

It’s not something unusual. One month from now, on June 2, the biggest elections in Mexico’s history, with more than 20,700 federal and local positions up for grabs, will take place amid a backdrop of widespread violence. More than 25 candidates have already been murdered, and at least 300 are under police protection.

It is a reflection of what the country has become. The last six years, during the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador —AMLO, as he is known—, were the most violent in Mexico’s history. More than 182,100 homicides were recorded, according to official figures.

The left-wing populist made a double bet on combating crime, directly associated with drug trafficking. Under the slogan “abrazos, no balazos” (hugs instead of gunshots), he said he would attack the causes of crime, citing the low quality of education.

On the other hand, he made a historic rapprochement with the military and practically placed the National Guard in the hands of the Army, an institution he created in 2019 to take care of public security after dismantling the Federal Police, accusing it of corruption.

With the elections, one of the questions on the table is whether the strategy adopted by AMLO had any effect.

Despite opposition criticism and high crime rates, Mexicans’ perception of insecurity fell by more than ten percentage points under this government, from 73% to 61%.

Confidence in the Army (82.4%) and the National Guard (73.6%) is also very high, far above the prestige enjoyed by the local police.

Some analysts consider that the military, with more structured careers and benefits, are seen as less corruptible public agents, a different view from that of local forces, with an average salary of 10 thousand pesos (around R$3,000).

“Organized crime is closely associated with municipalities”, says candidate Gaby Goros, from Jiutepec, with 215 thousand inhabitants. “These groups finance the police, who have low salaries, bad uniforms.”

Goros’ uncle was shot near his committee. Gunmen shot him once, then walked around the block and returned with more shots. At that time, he coordinated the so-called campaign bardas — the painting of walls with slogans.

The candidate of the PAN (National Action Party), one of the oldest in the country and one of the three members of the current opposition coalition, says she sees the murder of her relative as a message against the accusations she makes against organized crime. The day after the crime, she received protection from the National Guard created by AMLO.

Goros now walks, as she did to give this interview, surrounded by five agents. Many other candidates who also requested protection receive a bracelet that they must wear and press a button when they feel they are in danger.

Some dismissed the mechanism, saying that carrying a tracker on their arm would only make them easier targets for organized crime, who could obtain their geolocation from the police.

“Organized crime is taking over territories,” says professor and former deputy Cristián Castaño Contreras, a security expert and former professor at the Military Intelligence School. “The objective is to control public works and resources for construction and bidding, which can be allocated to companies linked to drug trafficking.”

For Contreras, there is also a problem with the formation of Mexican society. “The majority of young people are not at university, and the phrase said by many is ‘el que no transa no avanza’, in other words: those who do not violate the law are not successful in life.”

Containing crime is at the center of the platform of the two main presidential campaigns, in an unprecedented way with women at the forefront. Represented at the polls by the former head of government of Mexico City Claudia Sheinbaum, the government wants to definitively militarize the National Guard.

AMLO has in his pocket a package of changes to the Constitution that he aims to take to Congress only after the elections, when he hopes that his party will win even more seats and, thus, approve the measures more easily — the presidential term runs until October 1st. One of them transfers the GN to military control — although it is mostly made up of uniformed personnel, the institution, by law, must be subordinate to civil power.

The opposition, represented by a broad coalition and headed by former senator Xóchitl Gálvez, claims that it will maintain the Guard, but will demilitarize it and provide more support to the state and municipal police.

The current president, who enjoys wide popularity —more than 60%, according to some polls—, has undertaken a historic rapprochement with the Armed Forces.

In addition to having many of his advisors from these ranks, AMLO handed over the management of Mexico’s airport infrastructure to the military and placed in the hands of the Army the operation of the Mayan Train, the most controversial and symbolic project of his government that crosses the Yucatán peninsula, passing by tourist Cancún.

Meanwhile, some important indicators have not advanced in the last six years. According to the organization Zero Impunity, crimes such as homicide and kidnapping, the most common in Mexico, go unpunished in more than 95% of cases.

In municipalities, reports of bribes paid to police officers, the minimum wage, as they say in the country, are frequent. “Everyone in our municipality knows what’s going on,” says Gaby Goros. “It’s like they say: ‘pueblo chico (small town), infierno grande.”