Amid the explosion of dengue cases affecting all of Brazil, Campinas (SP) is getting closer to registering the biggest epidemic of the disease in its history. Sum 63,357 infected until this Wednesday morning (24), behind only the 65,754 notifications registered throughout 2015.
And the metropolis lives by the characteristic of the epidemic itself, the dengue peak. So much so that between March 31st and April 6th (epidemiological week 14), the number of at least 8,084 residents infected – updated this Wednesday morning.
This is the largest number of people with symptoms and confirmation of the disease in a single week in the city in the entire series available in the Arbovirus Panel, with data since 2012. It even exceeds the previous peak recorded in epidemiological week (SE) 12, when it had surpassed the 2015 rates.
See the graph below with data updated until Tuesday night (23).
O g1 spoke with Fausto Marinho, coordinator of the Campinas Arbovirus Program, and epidemiologist André Ribas Freitas, professor at Faculdade São Leopoldo Mandic and member of the Ministry of Health’s working group on dengue to analyze the epidemic scenario in the metropolis, and what to expect after the peak.
Due to the characteristics of dengue epidemics, the month of April concentrates the highest number of cases and the expectation of experts is that Campinas, as well as other places in Brazil, after reaching the peak, enter a plateau and register a reduction in infected people from May.
In this regard, the climate issue has a lot of influence. The arrival of colder days is responsible for the decrease in mosquito “voracity”explains André Ribas.
“The pattern of our autumn is precisely still warm days, but with slightly colder nights, and the mosquito’s voracity tends to decrease. With the cold, it reduces activity, the reproduction rate, and the tendency is for the In the coming months, the infestation will decrease”, he explains.
Fausto Marinho says that he expects a more pronounced drop in temperatures, since the maintenance of hotter days stretches the transmission curve.
“When we analyze past curves, April is where we have the peak, we enter a plateau and the decline begins. Epidemiologically speaking, now that the peak has reached, the expectation is that the reduction in cases will begin, but we need it to cool down. With high temperatures, the mosquito’s activity does not decrease”, ponders Marinho.
According to meteorologist Bruno Bainy, from Cepagri, from Unicamp, there is no indication of a sharp drop in temperature, and the trend is that temperatures will remain above average for the period in the coming weeks.
Fausto Marinho highlights that climate-related issues already indicated a potential risk of an increase in cases, since Campinas experienced higher-than-expected numbers of infected people at the end of 2023 and transmission, as in 2015, has already started the year accelerated.
“If you analyze 2015 with now, it follows the same pattern, of starting with a high number of cases at the beginning of the year. It follows the same pattern, but with a higher volume of infected people. It’s the same curve design, but with more cases”, highlights Fausto.
André Ribas points out that in the case of dengue, work to control breeding sites, whose action depends greatly on the population, continues to be the best way to control the disease.
Statistics from the Department of Health Surveillance (Devisa) show that 80% of breeding sites are in homes.
However, actions such as the release of mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia bacteriaalready adopted in some Brazilian municipalities, “is an interesting alternative”.
Given the city’s interest, the federal government has committed to informing interested parties when new projects are opened, which also depend on increasing Fiocruz’s production capacity.
The infectious disease doctor also highlights the use of dengue vaccines as a strategy that could have an effect in the coming years, when there is a wider supply and new vaccines are available.
“The issue of controlling breeding sites is fundamental, and the vaccine will help, next year it will be more extensive, this year was very fast, there was practically no time for large acquisitions, in addition to production logistics. I believe we have new vaccines approved, there is also an expectation of a vaccine against chikungunya, which is more serious than dengue”, he points out.
Hospitalizations and symptoms
According to the panel, 2.4% of registered cases required hospitalizationboth in the city’s public and private networks.
Among the symptoms, fever (94.8%), headache (72.3%) and body aches (70%) are the most common complaints from those who test positive for the disease in the city.
Among the actions are directing financial resources and agility in the purchase of inputs, serum and materials for nebulization, in addition to paying overtime and possibly hiring staff to reinforce assistance.
When to seek care?
Previously, the city hall’s recommendation was that residents seek medical attention when the patient had a fever and two other associated symptoms, such as headache, body pain, nausea, vomiting, spots on the body, joint pain and pain behind the eyes.
Patients who, in addition to fever, experience dizziness, severe abdominal pain, frequent vomiting, cold sweat and bleeding should go to an emergency room or Emergency Care Unit (UPA).
For the first time in history, three serotypes circulate simultaneously in the city: 1, 2 and 3. The Health Department emphasizes that residents should not underestimate the symptoms.
In a note, the Department of Health argues that since December 2023 it has put into practice “a series of measures considered additional, on regular planning to prevent and combat dengue”, which includes a “Situation Room for systematic analysis, reorganization of the network municipal health department and new website to disseminate information”.
“The City Hall carried out 12 joint efforts this year, including a regional one, where it visited at least 50,500 properties to guide the population and remove mosquito breeding sites. However, in each action, almost half of the spaces are found inaccessible by agents because they are closed , unoccupied or due to residents being unable to do so”, he informed.
Guidelines for the population
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