Interest rates traded on the futures market opened Monday close to stability, but began to register a slight increase, mainly in the intermediate and long sections of the curve. The movement coincides with a deterioration in the Treasury market in the United States, with T-Notes rates reaching peaks across all maturities. The increase in US bond rates also impacts the dollar, which operates at a level above R$5.03.
The week that begins the second quarter of the year has a busy schedule, which should keep the interest rate futures market on alert for signs of inflation in Brazil and the United States. In recent days, rates have registered contained movements, but the final balance of the month and the first quarter showed a steepening of the curve, reflecting caution regarding the monetary policies of the United States and Brazil.
The day also begins with a slight slope in the American interest curve, with a more pronounced increase in the rates on 10-year and 30-year bonds. On the North American agenda, the highlight of this Monday is the final data from the purchasing managers index (PMI) for March. The dollar is rising against most currencies around the world, while European markets have remained closed since the Easter holidays. Despite the absence of Europe in business, there is no forecast of a reduction in liquidity today, with the return of the American market.
On Friday, when the Brazilian and American markets were closed, the result of the PCE inflation index was released, which was as expected and did not generate alarm among analysts. And the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, maintained his cautious speech regarding the beginning of the interest rate cut. For the next few days, the main highlights will be the US employment data, with the ADP report and the long-awaited “payroll”, on Friday.
In Brazil, Monday’s agenda is sparse, with the highlight at the beginning of the day being the result of the Weekly Consumer Price Index (IPC-S), which dropped to 0.10% at the end of March, according to the data from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). As a result, the index accumulates an increase of 2.93% in 12 months. The variation came at the bottom of the Projeções Broadcast estimates range.
At 10:13 am, the Interbank Deposit (DI) contract maturing in January 2025 had a rate of 9.915%, against 9.910% for Thursday’s adjustment.
The DI for January 2026 projected 9.930%, compared to 9.894% in the previous adjustment. The DI rate for January 2027 was 10.20%, the maximum of the day, 10.15% of the previous adjustment. And the DI for January 2029 projected 10.71% (maximum), against 10.65%.
