To the heavy rains that have impacted southern Brazil will advance this Thursday (2) to the north of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and part of Paraná. The alert is from the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet).
In addition, strong storms are expected to occur, especially in Santa Catarina and the southern and western regions of Paraná. This is due to the formation of a broad area of low atmospheric pressure and the displacement of a cold front.
Until May 5th, strong winds with gusts exceeding 60 km/h, electrical discharges, hail and rainfall above 100 mm are expected. These events are predicted between the north of Rio Grande do Sul and the south of Santa Catarina.
Detailed forecast
- Heavy Rains: It will rain a lot in the next 48 hours until Saturday (4) and in the following 96 hours until May 6.
- Temperature Variation: A drop in temperatures is expected in the southern half of Rio Grande do Sul throughout the 2nd and part of Friday (3rd), due to the displacement of the cold front. However, the frontal system will retreat to Rio Grande do Sul between Friday and Saturday, raising temperatures again.
- Persistent Rain: The persistent atmospheric blockage will prevent the advance of the frontal system, resulting in the return of rain on Friday (3) to Rio Grande do Sul. The most affected areas will be the northern half of Rio Grande do Sul, on the border with Santa Catarina, northeast of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, coastal north, Serra do RS and south of SC.
Intense rains
- Much of Rio Grande do Sul continues to be hit by persistent and voluminous rains since April 27th.
- In some regions, rainfall volumes exceeded 300 millimeters (mm) in less than a week.
- In the municipality of Bento Gonçalves, for example, volumes reached 543.4 mm.
- Since April 29th, when the heavy rain remained stationary over RS, the volumes remained between 200 mm and 300 mm.
- In the state capital, Porto Alegre, the volume reached 258.6 mm in just three days.
- The Inmet stations that recorded the most rain from April 26th until 9am this Thursday (2) were: Soledade (488.6 mm); Santa Maria (484.8 mm) and Canela (460 mm).
Causes
- Inmet explains that the period between the end of April and the beginning of May 2024 is still influenced by El Niño. The phenomenon helped to block the cold fronts and concentrate the systems of instability areas at the height of Rio Grande do Sul.
- In addition to this condition, the much higher temperature of the South Atlantic Ocean, close to the equatorial band, also contributes to humidity, intensifying rainfall. The transport of moisture from the Amazon and the thermal contrast with the warmer air to the north of the Southern Region also helped to strengthen the storms.
Inmet reiterates the importance of the population staying informed and taking the necessary precautionary measures to avoid accidents.
