Ineligible, Deltan Dallagnol leads in Curitiba |

Triple technical draw between Deltan, Martins and Pimentel

Research by the AtlasIntel Institute, in collaboration with CNN, released this Thursday (25/4), points to a scenario of a triple technical tie in the dispute for Mayor of the capital of Paraná, where three names emerge with extremely close voting intention rates . Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Paulo Martins (PL) and Eduardo Pimentel (PSD) lead voters’ preferences, each oscillating around 18%.

Deltan Dallagnol had his mandate as federal deputy revoked last year by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), which raises the thesis of the former Lava Jato prosecutor’s ineligibility. However, parties must request this declaration only after registering their candidacy – if it exists by August 15th.

With a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, the survey reveals a technical tie between the three main candidates. Deltan, former prosecutor and former federal deputy for Novo, emerges with 18.2%, closely followed by Paulo Martins, former federal deputy for PL, with 18%, and the current vice-mayor, Eduardo Pimentel, from PSD , with 17.9%. This balance points to an unpredictable and extremely challenging electoral situation, highlighting the need for solid strategies on the part of candidates to stand out in this competitive context.

In addition to the three leaders, other names appear in the survey, although with significantly lower voting intention rates. Beto Richa (PSDB) appears with 8.7%, followed by journalist Cristina Graeml (PMB) with 8.4%, and federal deputy Carol Dartora (PT) with 7.9%. The presence of a diverse range of candidates reflects the city’s political plurality and the complexity of the electoral process in question.

The survey, carried out between April 18th and 23rd, interviewed 860 people and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number PR-07759/2024. With a confidence level of 95%, the research seeks to reflect the political and electoral reality of the city of Curitiba, providing valuable insights for voters and actors involved in the democratic process.

In addition to the main scenario of a technical tie, the research also explored other possible configurations, highlighting significant variations in results depending on candidate combinations. In a second scenario, for example, where Paulo Martins is replaced by state deputy Ricardo Arruda (PL), and the PT presents federal deputy Zeca Dirceu in place of Carol Dartora, new dynamics emerge, altering the distribution of votes among the competitors.

The third scenario, in turn, excludes names like Deltan, Goura and Maria Victoria, as well as the PT from the dispute, revealing a different panorama and indicating possible changes in voter preferences. Amid these uncertainties, it is essential to understand the role of Random Digital Recruitment (Atlas RDR) in conducting research, highlighting its innovative methodology and its ability to capture public opinion in an accurate and representative way.

However, Atlas did not include the name of former governor Roberto Requião, who recently left the PT to announce his pre-candidacy for Mayor of Curitiba with Mobiliza – his new party at the beginning of this month.

Atlas RDR revolutionizes the way research is conducted, using the digital environment as a platform for recruiting respondents. By circumventing the limitations of traditional approaches, such as in-person household surveys, Atlas RDR guarantees greater anonymity and impartiality to participants, enabling more faithful data collection free from external influences.

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Journalist and Lawyer. Since 2009 he has been the author of Blog do Esmael.