Only 3% of countries will have sufficient fertility by 2100

A study published in the British magazine The Lancet shows that, by the year 2100, only six (3%) out of 204 countries will have sustainable levels of births for sustainable population replacement. They are: Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Nigeria, Chad and Tajikistan. The work analyzes data between 1950 and 2021 and makes a projection for 2050 and 2100. The research is the result of a partnership with an international study group called Global Burden of Diseases.

The fertility rate considered acceptable at population replacement level is 2.1 children per woman throughout her life. In 2021, only 46% of countries had a fertility rate above the replacement rate, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa. In 1950, globally, the fertility rate was 4.84, falling to 2.23 in 2021. Future projections point to 1.83 children in 2050 and 1.59 in 2100, which will cause populations to decrease by size.

“What we have been observing are cultural changes, such as an increase in women’s education, greater participation of women in the job market, sexual education and family planning policies, increased access to contraceptive methods. What we have been observing in recent decades is a gradual decline in fertility rates”, said the researcher from the Public Health department at Fiocruz Pernambuco, Rafael Moreira.

European and North American countries are the worst off in terms of fertility rates with far-reaching economic and social consequences. “The aging of the population, the decline of the workforce, countries with many elderly people and little population of working age and this will have consequences for social security”, stated the researcher. He highlights that high-income countries will have to review their immigration policies as they will need young labor for their labor markets.

In Brazil, the fertility rate was 5.93 children in 1950 and 1.93 in 2021. Future expectations point to a fall, suggesting 1.57 in 2050 and 1.31 in 2100, below the global projection.

“Future fertility rates will continue to decline around the world and will remain low even under the successful implementation of pro-birth policies. These changes will have economic and social consequences due to the aging of the population and the decline of the workforce”, points out the article.