Seven states and the Federal District have already experienced the peak of dengue cases this year, according to the Ministry of Health. In recent years, the disease has seen an increase between the months of March and April. This time, the highest values were recorded at the end of January, February and beginning of March. Currently, the country has 2.6 million infected people, 991 deaths from the disease and another 1,483 under investigation, in 2024 alone.
Acre, Amazonas, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Piauí and Roraima, in addition to DF, are the places where the incidence of the disease is decreasing. According to the Secretary of Health and Environmental Surveillance, Ethel Maciel, they were the first to increase cases and, therefore, have already passed the peak and are reversing the curve. The Federal District, for example, has been leading the disease incidence ranking (number of cases/100,000 inhabitants) since the beginning of the year and is now showing a decline. The 13th epidemiological week, which ended last Saturday, had 2,896 cases reported — a significant contrast to the 12th, which had 10,870. In the two weeks before that, there was also a decrease, from 15 thousand to 13 thousand.
There are still some places that have a stable number of reported cases: Amapá, Ceará, Mato Grosso, Pará, Paraíba, Paraná, Santa Catarina, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Rondônia, Rio Grande do Sul and Tocantins. Paraná, which is fourth in terms of incidence and also had an increase in cases at the beginning of the year, showed a drop this epidemiological week, but is still considered stable. In the 10th week, there were 32 thousand cases. There was an increase to 34 thousand cases in the 11th; a decline followed in the 12th, with 32 thousand; and the 13th, with 13 thousand.
Maciel explains that, in some places, the slowdown in cases is as rapid as the increase. However, caution is still needed as cases will continue to occur. “We want to draw attention to this moment with a downward and stable trend. But, [a situação] it still requires attention, we need people to continue dedicating 10 minutes against dengue, looking at mosquito outbreaks. We also have a need in municipalities where the vaccine is available for parents and guardians to take their children to get the dengue vaccine”, declared the Secretary of Health and Environment Surveillance.
brazil dengue map
(photo: art editorial)
The epidemiologist also warned that some states are currently experiencing an increase in cases: Alagoas, Bahia, Maranhão, Mato Grosso do Sul, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe. For climate reasons, the Northeast usually sees a rise in dengue cases later, in May, and, therefore, started the wave of cases recently.
Bahia began to show a significant increase in cases only in the 8th epidemiological week, with 11 thousand cases. The 11th week was the one with the highest number of cases, more than 18 thousand reported. Since then, there has also been a drop in numbers — there were 13 thousand in the 12th week and 3.6 thousand in the 13th.
Next week
The increase in these places, according to Maciel, is not as abrupt as it was in the states that are experiencing a decline. There is also the expectation that most cases where cases are stable will confirm the drop — as is possible in Paraná. For this reason, the ministry is still cautious about confirming that the peak of the disease in Brazil has passed, but states that it should have a definitive answer next week.
Maciel, however, left a message that care measures should not be relaxed. “There are signs that we have passed the peak of the curve [de casos da dengue no Brasil], but we still have all the way down the curve. There will continue to be cases of dengue fever. We need to maintain our actions of attention, vigilance, and the population aware”, he concluded.
