The Brazilian Association of Soybean Producers (Aprosoja Brasil) announced, this Tuesday, that the 2023/2024 oilseed harvest will be the most challenging of the last 25 years in Brazil. The forecast is based on a study by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea Esalq/USP), presented together with the Brazilian Association of Corn Producers (Abramilho), which points to greater losses for those who invest in the cultivation system associated with corn.
The survey, however, places Rio Grande do Sul against Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Paraná. While net operating revenue from soybeans, compared to the previous harvest, fell 86%, in Rio Verde (GO), and 130%, in Sorriso (MT), in RS, it grew 171%.
The calculation, which depicts, in fact, what is received by the producer after the sale, results in R$606 per hectare in Carazinho this harvest. The municipality was chosen as a reference due to its similarity to the others in terms of freight.
The positive projection, however, does not reflect the reality of Rio Grande do Sul, according to the president of the Association of Soy Producers in Rio Grande do Sul (Aprosoja-RS), Ireneu Orth, since the comparison is made based on the negative result of R $852 per hectare in the 2022/2023 harvest – when local producers were hit hard by the drought.
With the average value of a bag at R$115 and R$120 currently, the manager projects that the financial income of this cycle will be similar to last year, when the bag reached R$180.
“It will be enough to cover the costs of farming without leasing expenses, it will be enough to balance the accounts, pay some installments on the previous investment, but there won’t be any leftovers”, guarantees Orth.
Market analyst at Safras & Mercado consultancy Luiz Fernando Gutierrez Roque explains that the loss of profitability is directly associated with the downward trend in prices and not with the increase in costs. It is also linked to the reduction in soybean productivity at a national level due to climate adversities.
“We are operating at a 25% lower cost than in 2022/2023”, recalls Roque.
The scenario makes the consultant consider the possibility that the area allocated to planting the grain, in the State, could decrease in the next harvest. “It is a possibility that is growing, an unprecedented phenomenon in the last two decades, when the opposite was always thought,” he says.
