Rain with high volumes and even excessive amounts are expected over the next ten days in part of Brazil. The biggest accumulations tend to be concentrated in the North, Northeast and in areas further south of the South Region. In several parts of the Northeast Region, there tends to be a lot of rain during the period.
The map above shows the rain projection for ten days from this Tuesday’s 0Z round of the European meteorological model, available to subscribers (subscribe here) in our maps section. As can be seen on the map, the rain will accumulate heavily in several parts of Rio Grande do Sul while tropical humidity will continue causing heavy rain in the North Region and further north in the Northeast Region.
It is always important to remember that at this time of year rain in Brazil is still mainly associated with heat and humidity. Loaded clouds form by convection and can dump very high localized volumes of rain in a short interval, which model projections for ten days end up not anticipating. These are isolated episodes of extreme precipitation accompanying storms that can bring rain of 100 mm to 200 mm in a few hours.
The North Region remains in the rainiest period of the year, which is called the Amazon winter, the period of the calendar in which there is a greater concentration of rain, which runs from December to mid-May, and which normally accounts for 60% to 70% of precipitation. of the year.
Thus, although still below the historical average in some areas due to the remaining effects of the El Niño phenomenon, such as in Roraima, which is suffering from record fires, high volumes of rain are observed in several parts of Northern Brazil, in the Amazon region.
This is what can be seen in the projection for the next ten days in a large part of the region. High volumes of rain are expected during the period in several parts of the states of Tocantins, Amazonas, Roraima, Pará and Amapá. In Amapá and Northern Pará, the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ZCIT) brings a lot of rain with excessively high accumulations.
In the Northeast Region, the trend continues to be for significant rainfall further to the North of the region and with extremely high accumulations in some points due to the influence of the ZCIT. Excessively high to locally extreme volumes should be observed more in the North, especially in the coastal area, Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba.
In other areas of Northeast Brazil, rain tends to be more irregular in its distribution with isolated showers associated with hot air. In isolation, the blows are strong, including different parts of the state of Bahia.
In the Center-West of Brazil, the rain should fall with the highest volumes in areas of Mato Grosso and Goiás. The volumes in parts of both states should be quite high. In Mato Grosso do Sul, although it rains heavily in some areas, precipitation tends to be much more irregular.
In Southeast Brazil, rain is expected to be low in most of the region over the next ten days. Where it should rain the most during the period is in the North of Minas Gerais and in the South of São Paulo, in the Ribeira Valley. Most of the interior of São Paulo will face a period of little rain, as will a large part of the state of Rio de Janeiro.
In the south of Brazil, Santa Catarina and Paraná will have irregular rain over the next ten days. There will be places where volumes will be high and many places where accumulated volumes will be low. In Rio Grande do Sul, a different reality. The end of this week and next week tend to see very frequent rainy conditions with a succession of episodes of instability due to the alternation of warmer air and milder air, which will favor high accumulated precipitation in several areas of the state.
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