Short Petrobras (PETR4)? Goldman Sachs has ‘anti-state’ thesis

03/26/2024 16:09

In a new report, experts from Goldman Sachs began recommending the sale of shares in state-owned companies, contemplating Petrobras (PETR4), Banco do Brasil (BBAS3), Cemig (CMIG4) and Sabesp (SBSP3).

The justification for the thesis, however, is not purely and simply due to political risk and the noise associated with it – as has been happening with Petrobras since the release of the 4Q23 balance sheet and the non-payment of dividends extraordinary.

O Goldman Sachs points out that companies state-owned have performed better than their respective private peers since the pandemic.

The tendency is that at the current moment this logic is reversed due to the current interest cycle. In this sense, the investment bank cites the imminent start of the interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

As a result, according to Goldman Sachs, there are “negative risks to the performance of state companies”.

Even so, experts recognize that Petrobras has a relatively more comfortable situation, with up-to-date deleveraging and other healthy financial indicators, such as cash flow.

Despite this, they point out that changes in Capex and possible changes in the company’s governance could affect its future.

Performance of Petrobras shares

Petrobras shares fell 1% intraday this Tuesday (26). Since the beginning of the year, shares have fallen by around 4%.