Oil futures rose almost 3% on the Chicago Stock Exchange this Monday (25) and were mainly responsible for gains of more than 1% in soybean grain prices. Among the most traded positions in derivatives, May closed the day with a gain of 2.9% and 49.01 cents per pound, while July was at 49.56 cents/lp and an increase of 2.8% .
Thus, among grain contracts, the increases were between 10 and 15 points, with May being quoted at US$ 12.07 and August at US$ 12.17 per bushel. Soybean meal prices also rose, taking the most traded position – May/24 – to US$340.90 per short ton, an increase of 0.53%. The remaining contracts rose from 0.1% to 0.4%.
“In Asia, everyone talks about how expensive palm oil is. I would say the opposite, how cheap soybean oil is. Palm oil is being traded above soybean oil FOB in Argentina, a big distortion”, explains the market analyst Eduardo Vanin, from Agrinvest Commodities.
He adds that the supply of soybean oil is smaller and the supply of palm oil is reduced, while the supply of sunflower oil is the only one that is recovering.
This Monday, palm oil futures rose, giving way to gains in soybean oil, in a recovery movement after last Friday’s declines and profit-taking (22). Also according to data from Agrinvest, the partial appreciation accumulated by soybean oil in March is almost 8%, supported by the advance of palm oil.
“Indonesia’s exports of palm oil products declined in January and February, raising concerns about the availability of vegetable oil in the domestic market due to the link between overseas sales quotas and domestic quotas, an official said on Monday. fair. Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, shipped 1.89 million tons of palm oil products in January and 1.01 million in February, below the previous year’s monthly average and last year’s levels, informed Bambang Wisnubroto, an official at the Ministry of Commerce. Demand for palm oil has been impacted by less competitive prices compared to its competitors such as soybean and canola oils, explained Bambang,” Labhoro Group reported.
As a result, part of the 5% gain accumulated by soybeans this month is linked to the increase in the prices of the derivative, in addition to other factors that also motivated the grain’s gains. At the beginning of March, the cut of two million tons that Conab (National Supply Company) made in its projection for the Brazilian soybean harvest was the spark that the market needed to return to working at around US$ 12.00 per bushel on the CBOT, while adverse weather conditions have been recorded in Argentina and have also brought warnings to traders.
Likewise, however, demand still remains contained and limiting the potential for price increases. Furthermore, international demand still remains quite focused, as analysts and market consultants explain, focused on Brazilian soybeans at the moment.
And this week, traders are also adjusting before the arrival of new numbers from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) on the 2024/25 harvest area, which will be reported this Thursday, March 28th. “The market is suspicious. And it already thinks that the soybean area may not rise as much as expected”, says market consultant Vlamir Brandalizze, from Brandalizze Consulting. “People now point out that, at most, a maximum of 1.5 million hectares grows, last week there was talk of up to 2 million.”
Still according to Brandalizze, the drop in the dollar against the real was also a factor in stimulating soybean prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange.
BRAZILIAN MARKET
In the Brazilian market, however, the drop in the dollar was offset by increases in Chicago and good deals were recorded with soybeans at the beginning of the week. Still according to the consultant from Brandalizze Consulting, by noon, around 500 thousand tons of the oilseed had already been sold.
In the over-the-counter market, indicators ranged from R$ 108.00 to R$ 117.00 per bag, depending on the marketing region. In ports, Rio Grande tested R$126.00 in spot and went up to R$131.00 in July. For the June position there is a lot of interest from applicants, both in the port of Rio Grande and Paranaguá, with prices around R$ 130.00.
The prizes also remain slightly better, without many changes compared to last week.
“Mid-year positions pay better and that’s the point”, says Vlamir Brandalizze.
