Understand the scenarios for Flamengo’s classification in the Libertadores round of 16

De La Cruz is one of Rubro-Negro’s hopes of getting the points needed to advance in the continental competition (Photo: Marcelo Cortes, CRF)

A defeat from Flamengo to Palestino, last Tuesday (7), raised concerns for fans about qualifying for the round of 16 of the Libertadores. Furthermore, Millonarios and Bolívar drew 1-1 last Wednesday night (8), but the score was not bad for Rubro-Negro, who can still qualify at the top of Group E.

Understand the scenarios for Flamengo’s classification in the Libertadores round of 16

With only two rounds remaining until the end of the group stage, Bolívar, Flamengo’s next opponent, is the leader with 10 points, while Palestino appears in 2nd with 6 points, the Brazilian team in 3rd with four and Millonarios with two.

Best case scenario: Two wins (10 points)

Just as I brought the ge, the two victories will leave Fla with a chance of qualifying as group leader. If Palestino loses in the next round, the Chilean team will only reach nine points, and Rubro-Negro would need to take four goals off the leader. Just as it is necessary for Palestino to beat Bolívar in the last round.

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On the other hand, if Palestino draws with Millonarios and beats Bolívar, the three teams would finish tied with 10 points. Therefore, Flamengo would need to beat both teams on goal difference, but they already have an advantage over the Chileans, who have -3.

Even with the two victories, Flamengo could finish 2nd. To do this, Bolivar only needs to score against Palestino in the last round.

A win and a draw

With this performance, Flamengo would not be able to take the lead in Group E of the Libertadores, but would qualify in two scenarios. The first is if Palestino draws both games and Mengão passes on goal difference.

Furthermore, the Chileans can lose one game and draw another. Thus, Fla would take the place after beating the opponent by one point.

A victory and a defeat

If Flamengo beats Bolívar and loses to Millonarios, they will only advance if the Colombians do not finish Group E with eight points and with Palestino scoring, at most, seven points and a lower balance.

Flamengo can lose to Bolívar and beat Millonarios. In this way, the classification would happen if the Palestino scored a maximum of seven points and registered a lower balance than the Rubro-Negros.

Two draws

Even with just two draws, Flamengo still managed to qualify for the Libertadores group stage. In this scenario, Palestino will need to lose the two remaining games. Thus, Fla would tie in the score and would be classified due to the goal difference which, at the moment, is already better at 0 against -3.

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