projections for inflation and GDP for the year remain unchanged; Selic for 2026 rises

Analysts’ projections for inflation in 2024 and for the evolution of GDP in the year remained at the same level this week, after a few weeks of increases, according to data released this Tuesday (30) by the Central Bank’s Focus Report. The novelty of the research was an increase in the Selic projection for 2026.

The survey, which is traditionally released on Mondays, has been postponed to Tuesdays due to work stoppages by BC employees, but should return to normal in the coming weeks.

Inflation

The IPCA estimate for this year was the same 3.73% as last week, while the forecast for 2025 inflation remained at 3.60%. The projection for 2026 remains at 3.50%, a level equal to that of the last 43 Focus bulletins, the same rate of variation expected for inflation in 2027.

GDP

For gross domestic product (GDP), the median of projections for 2024 was 2.02%. The projection for 2025 remained at 2.0% for the 20th week in a row and that for 2026 has been at 2.0% for 38 weeks in a row. The estimate is also at 2.0% for 2027, 40 weeks ago.

Selic

Regarding projections for the basic interest rate (Selic) in 2024, the Focus Bulletin maintained the estimate of a rate of 9.50% and the forecast for 2025 remained at 9.0%. The projection for 2026 rose from 8.50% to 8.63%, after 39 consecutive weeks of stability. The expected rate for 2027 has been at 8.50% for 38 weeks.

The median projections for the dollar remained throughout the research horizon: it was R$5.00 in 2024, R$5.05 for 2025, R$5.10 in 2026, and also R$5. 10 for 2027.

Primary outcome

The projection for the primary result in 2024 has remained at -0.70% of GDP for four weeks, while the estimate for 2025 has worsened, going from -0.60% of GDP to -0.68% of GDP. For 2026, the estimate remained at -0.50% of GDP. For 2027, the forecast worsened a little again, going from a deficit of -0.23% of GDP to -0.25% of GDP.

Public debt

For public sector net debt, projections remained stable during the week: for this year, they remained at 63.85% of GDP, while the estimate for next year remained at 66.40% of GDP. For 2026, the estimate remained at 68.00% and, for 2027, it remained at 69.70% of GDP.

Trade balance

The projection for the Brazilian trade balance in 2024 remained at US$80.50 billion for 2024. The positive balance for 2025 continued at US$75 billion in the week. For 2026, the projection remained at US$77.50 billion and, for 2027, it remained at the same US$75 billion.