Nunes and Boulos are technically tied in SP, says Atlas/Intel

The mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), is technically tied, within the margin of error, with his main opponent, the federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (Psol), in the dispute for the capital, according to a survey by AtlasIntel released this Wednesday (April 24). The psolist has 35.6% of voting intentions in the 1st round of the 2024 elections; Nunes has 33.7%.

The research washired by CNN Brazil and has margin of error is 2.5 percentage points. The technical tie remains in the simulation of a 2nd round between the candidates. Nunes appears with 44.8% of intentions, compared to 44.3% for Boulos.

See the full 1st round scenario:

Since December 2023, when the last round of the institute’s research was carried out, the Nunes’ voting intention grew by 15.7 pp. It is more than double Boulos’ increase in the period, which was 6.1 pp

In December, the 1st round scenario with the main candidates was:

• Guilherme Boulos (Psol) – 29.5%
• Ricardo Nunes (MDB) – 18%;
• Tabata Amaral (PSB) – 6.2%;
• Kim Kataguiri (União Brasil) – 5.3%;
• Marina Helena (New) – 0.6%;

2ND SHIFT

The research simulated the scenario of a possible 2nd round between Boulos and Nunes and another with a direct dispute between Nunes and Tabata Amaral. In both, the current mayor appears technically tied with his direct opponent.

Scenario 1 – Nunes x Boulos:

• Ricardo Nunes (MDB) – 44.8%;
• Guilherme Boulos (Psol) – 44.3%;
• Blank or null vote – 9.9%;
• They did not know how to answer – 1%.

Scenario 2 – Nunes x Tabata:

• Tabata Amaral (PSB) – 44.3%;
• Ricardo Nunes (MDB) – 42.6%;
• Blank or null vote – 11.4;
• They were unable to answer – 1.7%.

The Atlas Intel institute interviewed 1,629 residents of the city of São Paulo through RDR (Random Digital Recruitment) from April 18th to 22nd. The confidence level is 95%. The research was registered in the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) as SP-00864/2024.