The persistence of intense rains in the southern region of Brazil has become even more alarming due to the volumes well above normal for this time of year, as revealed by the accumulated records of the last few days over RIo Grande do Sul and part of Santa Catarina .
Persistence of rain and alarming volumes
The magnitude and concern generated by these intense rains become evident when observing the accumulated since the 26th. Municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul such as Nova Palma, Lagoa Bonita do Sul and Faxinal do Soturno witnessed extraordinary volumes of rain, reaching alarming levels of 360.0 mm, 327.0 mm and 319.0 mm, respectively. These staggering numbers not only cause immediate impacts such as flooding and landslides, but also pose a serious risk to the safety and well-being of local communities. Similar records in other cities, such as Cachoeira do Sul, Candelária and Arroio do Tigre, continue to reinforce the seriousness of the situation, with expressive values of 294.0 mm, 285.0 mm and 281.0 mm, respectively.
Meanwhile, in the state of Santa Catarina, although with slightly smaller volumes compared to Rio Grande do Sul, municipalities such as Jaraguá do Sul, Guarimirim, Pomerode and Doutor Pedrinho also face intense rainfall, with records varying from 146.2 mm to 119.4mm.
Comparison with Climatology
When compared with the climatology of the affected regions, the exceptionality of recent rains is notable. Normally, at this time of year, the areas in orange, covering the north and east of Paraná and part of the extreme north of Santa Catarina, receive between 50 and 100mm of rain throughout the month. In areas highlighted in yellow, which comprise a large part of the regions, the accumulations vary between 100 and 150mm. In lighter yellow areas, the records range between 150 and 200mm. The recently recorded volumes considerably exceed these values, highlighting a situation of a lot of rain above normal for these regions.
Climatempo” style=”display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;” src=”https://imagens.climatempo.com.br/climapress/galeria/2024/04/193d894df75e3ba5ef666fc0bada06a7.jpg” alt=”Figure – Climatological average for the month of April. Source: Climatempo” />
Figure – Climatological average for the month of April.
Source: Climatempo
Factors behind heavy rains
In recent weeks, a robust hot air mass has established itself in the central belt of Brazil, being trapped in this region due to persistent atmospheric blocking. This phenomenon creates a kind of “prison” for rain in the southern states, where cold fronts and other meteorological systems are amplified, resulting in an intensification of precipitation in the region.
Forecast and alert for the next few days
The forecast of more rain in the coming days does not bring relief to the states in the southern region of Brazil. As shown on the map, the areas in red indicate accumulations that can exceed 200mm, while the regions in purple, covering the central region, valleys, metropolitan, mountainous and southern strip of the state of Santa Catarina, may face volumes of rain that exceed the 300mm, with some locations even exceeding 400mm. These data highlight the imminent continuation of adverse conditions, requiring preparation and vigilance on the part of the population and authorities.
Figure 2- Accumulated expected for the next few days from 04/30/2024 to 05/05/2024.
Source: Climatempo.
Recommendations
In summary, the situation of intense rains in southern Brazil demands attention and precaution. Constant monitoring of the meteorological situation and the adoption of safety measures are essential to mitigate the impacts of this phenomenon on the region’s population and infrastructure.
