IPCA accelerates to 0.38% in April, above expected, says IBGE

The Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the country’s official inflation indicator, accelerated again, to 0.38% in April, after rising 0.16% in March, reported this Friday (10) the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In the year, the IPCA accumulates an increase of 1.80% and, in the last 12 months, of 3.69%.

In March 2023, the variation had been 0.61% and the indicator accumulated an increase of 4.18% in 12 months.

April’s data was above expectations, as the LSEG consensus of analysts estimated inflation of 0.35% in the monthly comparison. The estimate for inflation in 12 months was 3.66%.

Of the nine groups of products and services surveyed by IBGE, seven increased in March. The groups Health and personal care (1.16%) and Food and beverages (0.70%) were the highlights in the April index, being responsible for the biggest impacts.

Next came Clothing (0.55%) and Transport (0.14%). The others were between -0.26% of Household articles, which together with Housing (-0.01%) were the only groups with a negative change this month, and 0.48% of Communication.

“Health and personal care was impacted by the rise in prices of pharmaceutical products (2.84%), as a result of the adjustment of up to 4.5% authorized by the Medicines Market Regulation Chamber (CMED), as of March 31 ”, explained in a note André Almeida, manager of IPCA.

Food

In the Food and beverages group, food at home accelerated from 0.59% in the previous month to 0.81% in April. Papaya (22.76%), onion (15.63%), tomato (14.09%) and ground coffee (3.08%) showed the most significant increases, caused by the lower supply of these products in April. “Climatic phenomena that occurred at the end of 2023 and at the beginning of 2024 affected production”, added Almeida.

Food away from home (0.39%) registered a change similar to that of March (0.35%). Although snacks decelerated from 0.66% to 0.44%, the meal sub-item (0.34%) showed a greater change than that seen in March (0.09%).

Transport

In the Transport group, there was a drop in airfare (-12.09% and -0.08 pp). With regard to fuels (1.74%), only vehicle gas (-0.51%) saw a price decrease. Ethanol (4.56%), gasoline (1.50%) and diesel oil (0.32%) registered increases. Gasoline (0.08 pp) was the sub-item with the biggest positive impact on April’s IPCA.

The variation in the subway (1.72%) was influenced by the adjustment of 8.69% in Rio de Janeiro (5.07%), as of April 12th. In urban buses (0.01%), there was an increase of 2.15% in Campo Grande (1.06%), as of March 15th. The increase in the taxi sub-item (0.21%) is the result of the average adjustment of 17.64%, as of April 22, in Recife (4.84%).

Housing

The 0.01% drop in Housing was impacted by the increase in water and sewage rates (0.09%), which in turn was influenced by the 1.95% increase in Goiânia (1.75%).

Another contributing factor was residential electricity (-0.46%), due to tariff adjustments made in Salvador (BA), Aracaju (SE), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Recife (PE), Campo Grande (MS) and Fortaleza (CE). In the case of Household articles (-0.26%), the highlight was the decrease in the prices of computers and televisions.

INPC

The National Consumer Price Index – INPC increased by 0.37% in April, 0.18 pp above that recorded in March (0.19%). In the year, the INPC accumulated an increase of 1.95% and, in the last 12 months, of 3.23%, below the 3.40% observed in the immediately previous 12 months. In April 2023, the rate was 0.53%.

The prices of food products changed from 0.50% in March to 0.57% in April. The variation in non-food items was also greater. While in March the increase had been 0.09%, in April it was 0.31%.

Regionally, Fortaleza (-0.13%) was the only unit in the federation to record a drop in prices in April, influenced by residential electricity (-3.98%) and gasoline (-3.97%). The biggest change occurred in Aracaju (0.84%), due to the increases in onions (27.77%) and tomatoes (23.20%).