IPCA-15 slows down again, to 0.21% in April and is below expectations, says IBGE

The IPCA-15, a preview of the country’s official inflation, slowed down again in April, to 0.21%, after the 0.36% variation observed in March, reported this Friday (26) the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

In 12 months, the IPCA-15 variation in April was 3.77%, below the 4.14% in the immediately previous 12 months.

In April 2023, the IPCA-15 had been 0.57%.

April’s data came in below what was expected by the LSEG consensus among analysts, which was monthly inflation of 0.29% in the monthly comparison and 3.86% in 12 months.

The month’s result was influenced by the Food and Beverages group, with an increase of 0.61% and an impact of 0.13 percentage points on the general index.

Of the nine groups of products and services surveyed, only Transport (-0.49%) recorded a drop in April. After Food and beverages, the biggest impact on the indicator came from Health and personal care (0.78% and 0.10 pp). The other variations were between 0.03% for Household articles and 0.41% for Clothing.

Food

Within the Food and beverages group, food at home rose 0.74% in April, with stronger contributions from increases in tomatoes (17.87%), garlic (11.60%), onions (11.31% ), fruits (2.59%) and long-life milk (1.96%).

Among the falls, the most notable were potatoes (-8.72%) and meat (-1.43%).

Eating away from home (0.25%) slowed down in relation to March (0.59%), due to the less intense increase in meals (from 0.76% in March to 0.07% in April) . Snacks (0.47%) had a higher change than that recorded in the previous month (0.19%).

Other groups

In Health and personal care, in turn, the largest contribution (0.05 pp) came from pharmaceutical products (1.36%), after the authorization of an adjustment of up to 4.50% in medicine prices, starting on the 31st of March.

Furthermore, the health plan item (0.77%) continues to incorporate the monthly fractions of adjustments to new and old plans for the 2023 to 2024 cycle.

In the Housing group, the increase in the water and sewage rate (0.05%) was influenced by the 1.95% increase in Goiânia (0.90%), as of April 1st. In residential electricity (-0.07%), there were adjustments of 3.84%, as of March 15th, and 2.76%, as of March 19th, applied to the two concessionaires surveyed in Rio de Janeiro (2.34%).

In the Transport group, there was a drop in airfare (-12.20% and -0.09 pp). In relation to fuels (-0.03%), only ethanol (0.87%) increased, while vehicle gas (-0.97%), diesel oil (-0.43%) and gasoline ( -0.11%) recorded a drop in prices.