projection for the 2024 IPCA remains unchanged and the GDP rises this week

projection for the 2024 IPCA remains unchanged and the GDP rises this week
projection for the 2024 IPCA remains unchanged and the GDP rises this week
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Analysts’ projection for inflation in 2024 remained stable during the week, while the estimate for the evolution of GDP in the year maintained the trend of seven consecutive weeks of increase, according to data released this Tuesday (2) by the Central Bank’s Focus Report . The survey, which is normally released on Mondays, has been postponed due to strikes by BC employees.

Inflation

The IPCA estimate for this year remained at 3.75% during the week, while the forecast for 2025 inflation remained at 3.51%. The projection for 2026 remains at 3.50%, a level equal to that of the last 39 Focus bulletins, the same rate of variation expected for inflation in 2027.

The estimate for administered prices within the IPCA remained the same throughout the research horizon: they remained at 4.15% for 2024, 3.92% in 2025, and 3.50% for 2026 and 2027.

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For the IGP-M, the short-term downward trend continued. The estimate in 2024 is now 2.0%, compared to 2.38% the previous week. For 2025, it fell from 3.79% to 3.65%. The projection for 2026 has remained at 3.90% for seven weeks and that for 2027 has been 3.80% in the last six surveys.

GDP

For gross domestic product (GDP), the median projections for 2024 went from an expansion of 1.85% to 1.89%. The projection for 2025 remained at 2.0% for the 16th week in a row and that for 2026 has been at 2.0% for 34 weeks in a row. The estimate is also at 2.0% for 2027, 36 weeks ago.

Selic

In projections for the basic interest rate (Selic), the Focus Bulletin has maintained estimates throughout the research horizon for several weeks. The estimate for 2024, for example, remained at 9.00%, a stable level for 14 weeks, according to analysts.

The forecast for 2025 has remained at 8.50% for 17 consecutive weeks, while the projection for 2026 has remained at the same 8.50% for 35 consecutive weeks. The expected rate for 2027 is also at 8.50%, 34 weeks ago.

The median projections for the dollar in 2024 remained at R$4.95, while that for 2025 remained at the same R$5.00, but that for 2026 rose from R$5.03 to R$5.04. For 2027, it parked at R$5.07.

Primary outcome

The projection for the primary result in 2024 improved a little during the week, going from a deficit of -0.75% of GDP to -0.70% of GDP, while the estimate for 2025 remains at -0.60% of GDP for 10 weeks. For 2026, the estimate remained at -0.50% of GDP. For 2027, the forecast went from -0.30% of GDP to -0.28% of GDP.

Public debt

For public sector net debt, the 2024 projection, which was 63.94% of GDP, increased to 63.85% of GDP. The estimate for 2025 remained at 66.42% of GDP, while that for 2026 remained at 68.60% of GDP and that for 2027 remained at the same 69.90% of GDP.

Trade balance

The projection for the Brazilian trade balance in 2024 increased from US$81.50 billion to US$82 billion, and the estimate for 2025 remained at a positive balance of US$74.55 billion. Estimates for 2026 and 2027 remained at US$77.0 billion.

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Tags: projection IPCA remains unchanged GDP rises week

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