Experts Predict a Hyperactive, Unprecedented 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

A research team led by University of Pennsylvania climatologist Michael Mannpredicts that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will produce the largest number of named storms on recorddriven by exceptionally warm ocean waters and an expected phase change from boy to girl.

The new forecast released on Wednesday the 25th calls for a range of 27 to 39 named storms, with a best estimate of 33. The most recorded was 30 named storms in 2020, and an average season typically has around 14.

The forecast is consistent with those recently released by Colorado State University and AccuWeather, but is even more aggressive.

Record heat in the Atlantic and La Niña lead to a likely hyperactive hurricane season

“The unprecedented heat in the tropical Atlantic right now, which we hope will persist throughout the hurricane season, is the driving factor behind our forecast,” Mann said in comments reported by The Washington Post. “While we don’t make a specific forecast for storms that make landfall… an exceptionally active season in terms of basin-wide activity will likely translate into an exceptionally active season in terms of storms that hit the continent.“

Ocean temperatures reached record highs more than a year ago, due to a combination of human-caused climate change and the El Niño phenomenon.

Although El Niño increases global ocean temperatures, it tends to produce wind patterns in the Atlantic that suppress the development of tropical storms. However, ocean waters were so warm during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season that there were still an above-average number of storms.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) wait for the marine heat waveor sea surface temperatures well above normal, continue in the tropical Atlantic until at least September.

Meanwhile, El Niño is predicted to turn into La Niña soon. La Niña tends to have the opposite impact of El Niño on the hurricane season (producing wind patterns that encourage the development of Atlantic storms), further increasing the chances of an active season.

Hurricane Season Forecast According to Michael Mann’s Team

For more than a decade, climatologist Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania School of Arts and Sciencesand his colleagues examined historical meteorological data annually, analyzed current oceanic and atmospheric conditions and applied computational models to predict upcoming hurricane seasons.

The forecast of 33 named storms is the most the University of Pennsylvania team has ever predicted. Led by Mann, floved for his “hockey stick” graph that represents a rise in global temperatures over the last centurythe research group has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 2009. The number of actual storms was within the predicted range in 9 of 15 outlooks.

A Deep Learning Technique to Improve Hurricane Forecasting

Mann states that the annual forecast originally began as a scientific work. It all started as an undergraduate research project that Michael Kozar, then a student at Pennsylvania State University, conducted under Mann’s direction to improve predictions made by other groups using a more appropriate statistical framework.

“This tropical cyclone project with Dr. Mann was my first exposure to meteorological research about 15 years ago,” says Kozar. “Working on this seasonal model as an undergraduate helped me confirm that I wanted to dedicate my career to better understanding and predicting Atlantic tropical cyclones. So it’s always exciting to connect with the team and review our work each spring to have an idea of ​​how active the upcoming season could be.“

Kozar, now a tropical cyclone analyst at Moody’s Risk Management Solutions, continues to work with Mann each year to strengthen the quality of forecastswhich now incorporate more advanced statistical models that have been refined to include a wider range of climate predictors and adjustments for historically underestimated storms.